Use our Long Walk Hurdle trends to help find the winner of Saturday’s big Ascot Grade One race. A prize that the old-timer Paisley Park has won three times over the years and is back for more at the age of 11.
Long Walk Hurdle Trends 2023: The Ascot Stats To Look For
You can see Andy Newton’s key Long Walk Hurdle trends and stats from the last 21 runnings of Saturday’s Ascot race. Over the years we’ve seen staying hurdling greats like Baracouda, Big Buck’s and Reve De Sivola winning this prize multiple times. While in the last five years the popular pairing Champ and Paisley Park have won the pot four times between them. They are both back for more this Saturday aged 11.
- 20/21 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
- 20/21 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) (6 won, 4 runners-up)
- 18/21– Placed in the top three in their last race
- 17/21 – Favourites placed
- 16/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
- 16/21 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
- 16/21 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
- 13/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
- 13/21 – Raced at Newbury last time out
- 12/21 – French-bred horse
- 10/21 – Won their last race
- 10/21 – Favourites that won
- 7/21 – Won by a past winner
- 3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 3/21 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
- 3/21 – Ridden by jockey Aidan Coleman
- Champ (4/1) won the race in 2021
- Paisley Park won the race in 2018, 2020 & 2022
- The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 7/1
Long Walk Hurdle Trends and Stats 2023
We’ve highlighted the best Ascot horse racing stats below to apply to the final Long Walk runners. These will then help you narrow down the entries and give you a chance of find the winners with the best UK horse racing betting sites.
Recent Run: Look For An Outing Within The Last 7 Weeks
With a massive 95% of the last 21 winners of the Long Walk Hurdle having raced in the last seven weeks, this a great place to start your search for the Ascot winner.
Most of the 2023 runners will fit the bill, but one that doesn’t is the 2021 winner Champ, who is back from a 252-day break.
Linked to this Long Walk Hurdle trend is to also respect horses that ran at Newbury last time out. 13 of the last 21 winners backed this stat up, including last year’s winner Paisley Park, who was a close second in the Long Distance Hurdle at the Berkshire track.
Form: At Top Three Finish (at worse) Is a Big Plus
Just under half of the last 21 Long Walk Hurdle winners won their last race (48%), which is a nice return. However, this increases to 86% if we just focus of those with a top three finish last time out.
Favourites: The Market Leaders Have Fared Well
The Long Walk Hurdle hasn’t produced a winning favourite since 2019, but overall (in the last 21 runnings) the race still has a solid record for market leaders. 10 of the last 21 jollies have won (48%).
Top Stayers Hurdle Guide: Look Back On The Race Come Cheltenham
This Ascot race is also used in the campaigns of horses with the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on their agendas.
In the last 21 runnings a massive 20 Long Walk Hurdle winners went onto run in that Cheltenham race that term – with six winning and four finishing runner-up.
The horses to win both race in the same season were – Baracouda (2001/02), Big Buck’s (2009/10, 2010/11 & 2011/12), Thistlecrack (2015/14), Paisley Park (2018/19).
Past Winners: Respect Recent Heroes
This Ascot race also has a habit of throwing up repeat winners as since 2000, there’s been nine occasions that saw a horse winning the race for at least the second time. Baracouda (3), Big Buck’s (2) Reve De Sivola (2) Paisley Park (2).
Age: Horses Aged 8 Or Younger Have The Best Record
Champ and Paisley Park have defied their ages to win the Long Walk Hurdle at 9 and 10 year-olds in the last two runnings. However, prior to that the trends tell us to focus more on horses aged 8 or younger.
76% of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or younger, while since 1992 the race has produced just five winners aged 9+.
Trainers: Respect Nicholls, Henderson and Lavelle
We’ve had a splattering of different yards winning the Long Walk Hurdle over the years, but since 2008 the Nicky Henderson (2), Paul Nicholls (3) and Emma Lavelle (3) teams are the ones with the slightly better records. All three should be represented again in 2023.
- Emma Lavelle – Paisley Park
- Nicky Henderson – Champ
- Paul Nicholls – Red Risk, Blueking D’Oroux
Long Walk Hurdle Race Info 2023
đź“…Date: Saturday 23rd December 2023
đź•™Time: 2:25pm
🏇Racecourse: Ascot (3m 1/2f)
đź’° Winner: ÂŁ62,645
đź“ş TV: ITV4 / Sky Sports Racing
Long Walk Hurdle 2023 Betting Odds
See the latest Long Walk Hurdle odds from BetMGM, where you can also get a ÂŁ40 free bet after staking your first ÂŁ10. If you’ve already got a BetMGM account you can find more top UK horse racing betting sites here.
- West Balboa 10/3
- Crambo 7/2
- Champ 4/1
- Paisley Park 5/1
- Dashel Drasher 6/1
- Botox Has 10/1
- Blueking D’Oroux 14/1
- Red Risk 20/1
- Gowel Road 33/1
- Goshen 50/1
Note: Odds are subject
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Long Walk Hurdle Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2022 – PAISLEY PARK (9/2)
- 2021 – CHAMP (4/1)
- 2020 – PAISLEY PARK (9/4)
- 2019 – THE WORLDS END (15/8 fav)
- 2018 – PAISLEY PARK (8/1)
- 2017 – SAM SPINNER (9/2)
- 2016 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (6/5 fav)
- 2015 – THISTLECRACK (2/1 fav)
- 2014 – REVE DE SIVOLA (13/2)
- 2013 – REVE DE SIVOLA (9/4)
WATCH: Paisley Park Winning The 2022 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot
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