The 2023 Grand National Trial trends suggest that last year’s promoted winner Bristol De Mai has it all to do to make up last year’s success – with a monster 65 year-old age stat to overcome. We take a look at the key Haydock stats and give you the horses that fit most of the main trends.
15 Runners Head to Post For Today’s 2023Grand National Trail
Just over three weeks till the Cheltenham Festival, but before that we’ve still some decent weekend jumps action to take in.
Saturday’s Haydock Betfred Grand National Trial will see a maximum of 15 runners heading to post and at this stage it’s the Venetia Williams-trained Fontaine Collonges heading the betting @ 11/2 with BetUK – the Williams yard have won this race twice since 2014.
Next up in the market is the popular grey horse Bristol De Mai, who actually won this race 12 months ago – well, he sort of did!
The Galloping Bear actually won the 2022 Grand National Trial 12 months ago, but that horse was later found to have a banned substance in a sample and was disqualified as a result – meaning Bristol De Mai, who had finished second, was promoted to first and in the process bagged an extra £35k in prize money – not bad for not doing anything!
Grand National Trial in Name Only
When looking at the race name of the Betfred Grand National Trial, it wouldn’t be foolish to think that horses that win this race actually go onto run well in the Aintree Grand National – after all, it’s meant to be a trial, right?
Wrong – the race is all but a Grand National trial in name only, as we’ve not had a winner of this Haydock race go onto land the big one at Aintree. 8 of the last 20 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National – but all finished out of the top four.
Suny Bay in 1997 did go onto finish second that year at Liverpool, while the 2005 winner Forest Gunner finished 5th and Vieux Lion Rouge went onto run sixth – but that’s about as good as it gets, so don’t be rushing out to back the winner of Satuday’s race for the Grand National on April 15th.
Key Grand National Trends Bristol De Mai Needs to Defy
Despite not being the actual winner of the 2022 race, much of the focus will be still be on Bristol De Mai to see if he can win the prize in its own right.
However, there are some key Grand National Trial trends that Bristol De Mai will need to overcome if he’s to do that – including a significant age one (see below).
We’ve also seen 80% of the last 20 winners having raced in the last 7 weeks and with Bristol De Mai’s last outing 91 days ago, this would be another negative.
On a plus, Haydock is Bristol De Mai’s track – the grey has won 6 of his 10 career chase wins at the Lancashire venue. But, most horse racing fans will also know that the Twiston-Davies horse seems best on soft/heavy ground and he’s unlikely to get that on Saturday.
The Last 12 Year-old To Win The Grand National Trial Was In 1958
Bristol De Mai is now a 12 year-old and you have to go back to 1958 to find winner of that age – a horse called Giles Farnaby in 1958!
Yes, in the last four year’s we’ve have three winners aged 10 or 11, so you can’t totally rule out the older runners – but we’ve also seen 4 of the last 7 successful horses aged 8, while with the last 15 winners aged between 8-11, the younger horses at the other end of the age spectrum have it to do as well.
The Last Back-to-Back Grand National Trial Winner Was Also a Grey
If you like your quirky stats, then this race has only seen one back-to-back winner since it was first run in 1947 – and that horse was also a grey – Silver By Nature. Could this be a sign towards Bristol De Mai’s chance?
Which Horses Fit The Most 2023 Grand National Trial Trends?
OMAR MARETTI @ 11/2 with BetUK – Third last time out at Ayr, but that came off a 291 break and carried 12st that day too. This Alex Hales-trained 9 year-old can be expected to have improved for that last run has Sean Bowen as a plus in the saddle.
THE TWO AMIGOS @ 12/1 with BetUK – Gutsy stayer that won the 2022 Welsh Grand National over Christmas – 25% of the last 20 winners ran in that Chepstow race. Up 5lbs looks fair, but still only has 10st 6lbs to carry here.
NOTACHANCE @ 12/1 with BetUK – Third in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time out to the useful Iwilldoit. Up only 2lbs for that here and with Tom Cannon riding well at the moment will have every assistance from the plate.
Grand National Trial Betting with BetUK
Latest 2023 Haydock Grand National Trial betting with BetUK as we see last year’s winner Bristol De Mai figures high up in the betting, along with the Venetia Williams-trained Fontaine Collonges.
- Fontaine Collonges 11/2
- Omar Maretti 11/2
- Tim Pat 15/2
- Bristol De Mai 10/1
- Small Present 10/1
- Snow Leopardess 11/1
- The Two Amigos 12/1
- Fortescue 12/1
- Notachance 12/1
- Quick Wave 18/1
- Grumpy Charley 18/1
- 14/1 bar
Note: Odds correct as 18th Feb, but are subject to change and others on request
Grand National Trial Trends to Help Find the Winner
See below our top Grand National Trial trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these Haydock stats to the final 15 runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 20/20 – UK-based trained winners
- 19/20 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
- 18/20 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
- 16/20 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
- 15/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
- 15/20 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
- 15/20 – Aged 10 or younger
- 14/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
- 13/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- 12/20 – Finished in the top two last time out
- 11/20 – Carried 11-0 or less
- 10/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 10/20 – Unplaced favourites
- 8/20 – Won last time out
- 8/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
- 5/20 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
- 2/20 – Winning favourites
- The last 15 winners were aged between 8-11 years-old
What Date & Time Is The 2023 Grand National Trial?
📅Time/Date: 2:40pm (Saturday 18th February 2023)
🏇Racecourse: Haydock
💰 Purse/Winner: £56,950
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
Grand National Trial Recent Winners
- 2022 – BRISTOL DE MAI (11/2)
- 2021 – LORD DU MESNIL (8/1)
- 2020 – SMOOTH STEPPER (33/1)
- 2019 – ROBINSFIRTH (8/1)
- 2018 – YALA ENKI (8/1)
- 2017 – VIEUX LION ROUGE (8/1)
- 2016 – BISHOPS ROAD (13/2)
- 2015 – LIE FORRIT (8/1)
WATCH: Bristol De Mai Winning The 2022 Grand National Trial (well, sort of!)
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