Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to unearth value betting opportunities and shares his thoughts for day three of the Cheltenham festival (and supporting cards) below…
Andrew found 4-1 Kempton scorer PROCLAIMER on Wednesday and has four recommended bets for Thursday, March 17th, day three of the Cheltenham festival. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
MOROZOV COCKTAIL (system – Tim Easterby handicappers, first-time blinkers)
Since the beginning of 2012, Tim Easterby has a 22 from 175 record with his handicappers in first-time blinkers and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £60.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Three of those winners came over hurdles and MOROZOV COCKTAIL is taken to bounce back from a below-par effort at Catterick last time.
SCARBOROUGH CASTLE (system – Fastnet Rock on Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire Fastnet Rock do well on Tapeta, winning 21 of their 106 starts at Newcastle (+£34.40), 29 of their 169 starts at Wolverhampton (+£18.73) and one of their six starts here at Southwell (-£2.00). That sole Southwell success came from SCARBOROUGH CASTLE and the return to this venue will suit.
DINOBLUE (system – Cheltenahm festival, easy winners in Ireland last time out, young horses)
Backing horses who won ‘easily’ or ‘comfortably’ in their prep race has been a successful strategy at the Cheltenham festival in recent years, with those aged six or younger who did so in Ireland winning 14 of their 41 starts since 2016 (24.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £64.67. DINOBLUE qualifies on this and no less than five other positive angles and could be hard to beat in the Dawn Run.
CHAMBARD (system – Kim Muir, age, experience, recent run)
We’ve had one or two young lightly-raced winners of the Kim Muir in recent years but I still like to side with experience in this amateur riders’ handicap chase. Backing those aged seven to ten, who had raced at least nine times over fences and who ran within the past four weeks would have found eight winners from 79 bets for a profit of £82.00. This system drew a blank last year but the four qualifiers including the 33-1 runner-up Cloudy Glen and 9-1 fourth Hold The Note (the other two pulled up at 80-1 and 33-1). This year, there are three qualifiers – CHAMBARD, Larry and reserve Didero Vallis. Chambard gets on well with Lucy Turner and is on an upward curve, recording form figures of 12211 (3-5) since undergoing wind surgery. The early 40-1 could be on the generous side.
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