Plenty of Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trends to take into the 2023 Cheltenham Festival opener on Tuesday. However, there is one hefty Cheltenham stat that Facile Vega fans might want to take note of if this Willie Mullins runner is to win.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends: 88% Of the Last 26 Winners Won Their Last Race
Facile Vega is set to go off as the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite – however, there is one monster Cheltenham Festival stat that this Willie Mullins hurdler will need to overcome first.
A massive 23 of the last 26 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winners WON LAST TIME OUT.
As we all know, Facile Vega’s unbeaten run – after 5 straight wins – ended last time out, when he lost at Leopardstown. The horse got into a battle up top with High Definition and in the end used up way too much energy to last out.
This Supreme Novices’ trend works out at an 88% strike-rate that Facile Vega will need to defy.
Mullins said after the race that jockey Paul Townend rode him like a machine and it’s clear that despite being very classy, he’s not quite that.
Many Cheltenham fans though are willing to forgive that run and he’s still been well-backed to win the opening day contest. The horse that won that last race – El Etait Temps – is back for more too to prove it wasn’t a fluke, while the unbeaten Marine Nationale will also be a big danger for Facile Vega.
Willie Mullins Has Won 50% Of The Last 10 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
On a plus for Facile Vega backers, he’s trained by Willie Mullins – who has won this race 5 times in the last 10 years and 7 in total. Mullins also has El Etait Temps, Diverge and Dark Raven.
Labaik In 2017 The Last Supreme Hero To Win Off a Defeat
The last Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner to take the race off the back of a loss, was the Gordon Elliott-trained Labaik in 2017. This surprise grey winner won at 25/1 that year, which came off the back of a 100-length defeat at Naas in his previous race!
RELATED: 2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends On Day One: Key Cheltenham Stats To Find The Tuesday Winners
2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends and Stats
You can see in more detail our positive and negative Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trends below. Use these Cheltenham stats to whittle down the 2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runners to find the best profile of past winners.
POSITIVE SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE TRENDS
- 23 of the last 26 winners won their last race
- 14 of the last 19 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
- 11 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the market
- 10 of the last 11 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
- 21 of the last 28 winners ran in the last 45 days
- 8 of the last 10 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
- 26 of the last 28 winners had raced that same calendar year
- Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
- 6 of the last 9 winners had been rated 153 or more
- 9 of the last 10 winners returned a single-figure price
- 9 of the last 14 winners were previous bumper winners
- Irish-trained horses have won 17 of the last 31 runnings
- 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 16 of the last 18 runnings
- Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 10 years
NEGATIVE SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE TRENDS
- Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 26. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
- Since 1992 all horses (38) wearing head-gear have been beaten
- We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
- Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
- 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
- Just 3 of the last 20 winners came here unbeaten
- Just 1 of the last 20 winners aged 7 or older
- Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
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