See below the key Stayers’ Hurdle trends 2024 to apply to the big day three Cheltenham Festival contest, where last year we saw Sire Du Berlais upset the odds to win at 33/1 – in what was his third win at the meeting. He’s back for more at the grand old age of 12, so can he defy the Stayers’ Hurdle trends and stats again, or will we see a new champ on the roll of honour?
Stayers’ Hurdle Trends and Stats For 2024 Cheltenham Festival Day Three Feature
The Stayers’ Hurdle, along with the Ryanair Chase, is one the big Cheltenham Festival day three feature and carries a winning purse of just over £182,878.
12 months ago, there was a deafening silence after the race when the Gordon Elliott-trained Sire Du Berlais landed the spoils at 33/1 – and also providing the yard with their first success in the contest.
At the age of 11, Sire Du Berlais was the oldest Stayers’ Hurdle winner since Crimson Embers in 1982, while the second (Dashel Drasher), third (Teahupoo), fourth (Flooring Porter), fifth (Home By The Lee) and seventh (Paisley Park) last year are all back again.
The race also has added sparkle with the 2022 Grand National winner Noble Yeats entered, plus former Ballymore and Champion Bumper winner Sir Gerhard is in the race as he looks for his third different Festival prize.
Stayers’ Hurdle Trends 2024: The Positives and Negatives
We give you the key positive and negative Stayers’ Hurdle stats that have built up in recent times. You can use these to apply to the 2024 runners and find the best profiles based on past winners. Putting history in your corner.
Positives
- ✅13 of the last 19 won their last race
- ✅7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers
- ✅20 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
- ✅30 of the last 34 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
- ✅18 of the last 23 winners from the top 4 in the market
- ✅18 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
- ✅9 of the last 22 were French Bred
- ✅Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
- ✅8 of the last 17 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle in their last race
- ✅19 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that campaign
- ✅14 of the last 19 winners started 10/1 or less
- ✅Past winners of the race have a fair record
- ✅18 of the last 27 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
- ✅3 of the last 6 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous campaign
Negatives
- ❌ Be wary of horses that didn’t finish in the top three last time out
- ❌Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd in their last race
- ❌A 5 year-old is still to win the race
- ❌Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t have good records
- ❌Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
- ❌The Irish are have won the race only 6 times since 1995 (but have won the last 3)
- ❌Avoid horses that were beaten in the race in the past
- ❌Horses wearing headgear are just 1 from 79
- ❌Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 34 runnings
- ❌Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 65), last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
Last Time Out Winners Have A Good Record
With 68% of the last 19 Stayers’ Hurdle winners having won their last race this is a good place to start and of the 13 runners this is a plus for Teahupoo, Crambo, Noble Yeats and Sir Gerhard.
Also Respect Horses That Finished 1st or 2nd Last Time Out
We can also increase this percentage to 83% as 20 of the last 24 winners also finished 1st or 2nd in their last race.
Those that fall down here are Flooring Porter, Home By The Lee, Champ, Dashel Drasher, Buddy One, Janidil and last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais.
How Many Stayers’ Hurdle Favourites Win?
Pundits like Tony Calvin quickly dismiss this favourites stat as pointless. However, I obviously totally disagree.
If a race has many favourite winners (or not) this clearly shows that over a period of time, it’s a contest that punters (and the weight of money) have proved to either get wrong or right – by backing certain horses into the favourites berth and then that runner going onto win (or losing).
This confirms if the race has been a tricky (or kind) one for punters over the years and this could be for a number of reasons. Is it a race that the cream generally rises to the top – like the Champion Hurdle and Arkle in recent years with 70% of favs winning in the last 10 years (before this Festival)?
Or is it a race that is prone to throwing up big-priced winners – there will be a reason for that. Like the Martin Pipe and Albert Bartlett – two race with NO winning favourite in the last 10 runnings.
Anyway, enough of all that. We’ve not had a winning Stayers’ Hurdle favourite in the last four runnings and with two of the last four winners priced 33/1 and 50/1 then it’s thrown up the odd shock in recent times as well.
Paisley Park was the last winning jolly in 2019 (11/8) and in the last 10 years we’ve only seen two winning market leaders, with Thistlecrack in 2016 the other.
This year’s favourite is Teahpoo, who was third in the race 12 months ago.
Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdles Often Good Guides
In the build-up to the Stayers’ Hurdle, it’s races like the Cleeve Hurdle (watch below) and the Long Walk Hurdle (watch below) that have been good guides.
The Long Walk Hurdle has seen Paisley Park and Thistlecrack win both in the same season, while in the last 10 years we’ve had four Cleeve Hurdle winners go onto win this race – Cole Harden, Thistlecrack, Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar.
This year’s Cleeve Hurdle was won by Noble Yeats, while the Long Walk was taken by Crambo. Paisley Park also finished second in them both.
88% Of The Last 34 Winners Aged Between 6-8
Finally, is to check the age. Yes, last year we saw a shock 11 year-old winner in Sire Du Berlais, but the overall age stats tell us that horses between 6-8 have the best record in the last 34 runnings.
This age range has returned a 88% strike-rate – meaning this bunch fit the bill. Teahupoo, Crambo, Noble Yeats, Sir Gerhard, Home By The Lee, Buddy One and the two-time winner of the race – Flooring Porter
When Is The 2024 Stayers’ Hurdle?
The Stayers’ Hurdle is staged at the Cheltenham Festival on the third day (Thursday)
📅Time/Date: 3:30pm, Thursday 14th March 2024
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
💰 Winner: £183,878
📺 TV: RacingTV / ITV
See the full running order and times for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
Recent Stayers’ Hurdle Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2023 Sire Du Berlais (33/1)
- 2022 Flooring Porter (4/1)
- 2021 Flooring Porter (12/1)
- 2020 Lisnagar Oscar (50/1)
- 2019 Paisley Park (11/8 fav)
- 2018 Penhill (12/1)
- 2017 Nicholls Canyon (10/1)
- 2016 Thistlecrack (Evs fav)
- 2015 Cole Harden (14/1)
- 2014 More Of That (15/2)
WATCH: Sire Du Berlais Winning The 2023 Stayers’ Hurdle
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