Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Cheltenham, Newmarket and Clonmel and Chelmsford for his four stats-based picks on Thursday, April 18th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWMARKET 2.25
PADESHA (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a fine record with debutants, regardless of age and who trains them. They’ve scored with 42 of the 190 qualifiers (22.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £37.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. PADESHA cost 300,000 euros as a yearling and his half-sister Sparkling Beauty, who runs in the same colours, came to hand early, finishing second of 12 at Newbury on her debut before a wide-margin win at Glorious Goodwood. Stall 12 won’t be an issue on yesterday’s evidence and he can be supported to make a winning debut.
CHELTENHAM 5.00
KHUTULUN KHAN (system – Lucy Wadham, second run in a bumper)
Lucy Wadham does well with her bumper runners on their second career start, scoring with ten of the 58 qualifiers since the beginning of 2010 for a profit of £53.00. KHUTULUN KHAN was four lengths behind Anno Power (re-opposes today) when third at Ascot last time but will improve for that and can reverse the form.
CLONMEL 5.45
SHEAN GORY (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
Progeny of the sire Fame And Glory tend to improve with age and backing all the eight-year-olds and older would (prior to Wednesday’s racing) have found 81 winners from 643 bets (12.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £89.09 to the usual £1 stake. Eight-year-old mare SHEAN GLORY has scored just twice from 43 starts but she likes Clonmel and is taken to reward each-way support at around the 7-1 mark.
CHELMSFORD 8.00
SOUTHBANK (system – Chelmsford handicaps, low draw, top LTO speed figure, colts/geldings)
In the past two years simply backing low-drawn male runners (stall 1, 2 3 or 4) in Chelmsford handicaps who had the best last-time out speed figure (according to Proform’s ratings) would have found 66 winners from 220 bets (30% strike-rate) for a profit of £46.33 (expected winners = 51.15, A/E = 1.29). SOUTHBANK clocked a very fast time when scoring over course and distance last week and can defy a 6lb penalty from his stall 3 berth.
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