Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
There’s some fantastic racing action on Saturday (October 1st) and Andrew has six bets at Newmarket, Ascot, Fontwell, Redcar and Gowran Park . Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NEWMARKET 1.31
WHITE WILLOW (system – New Bay handicappers, top three finish last time out)
Simply backing any progeny of the sire New Bay in handicaps, on the back of a top-three finish, would have found 57 winners from 157 bets (36.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £114.49 to a £1 level stake at SP.
WHITE WILLOW has failed to settle in very small fields on occasions but has form figures in fields of eight or more runners, since her racecourse debut, of 11013 (3-5), with the ‘duck egg’ as a result of not handling the track at York. She raced closer to the inside rail than ideal when third of four at Newcastle last time and her trainer won this race a few years ago.
FONTWELL 2.00
HURRICANE VICHI (system – Ffos Las bumper winners, next time out)
Ffos Las bumper form tends to be underrated by the betting market, but the winners often follow up, landing 43 of their 133 starts (32.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £39.59. HURRICANE VICHI won well from the front at the Welsh venue in April, beating an odds-on Nicky Henderson inmate, and can follow up on his hurdles debut.
NEWMARKET 2.06
SKYSAIL (system – Marcus Tregoning, last-time out winners, recent run)
Marcus Tregoning runs his horses sparingly and it pays to sit up and take notice when he brings a last-time-out winner back to the races relatively quickly. Those who last ran between one and 28 days ago followed up at the rare of 26.5% (95 winners from 358 runners) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £92.15.
In October only the strike-rate is 35% (22 from 63, +£80.99) and SKYSAIL, an impressive winner at Newbury just 15 days ago, is taken to follow up from what could be a favourable high draw in this valuable sales race.
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GOWRAN PARK 3.37
LORD ERSKINE (system – recent run)
LORD ERSKINE defied a break of 182 days when justifying favouritism off a mark of just 87 at Sligo back in May 2018 but his best efforts have come on the back of a recent outing.
When running 23 days or soon since his latest run, his record becomes 0031111800491020011 (7-19) for a profit of £60.85. He clocked a good time when scoring over 1m6f on the Flat just nine days ago and can make this return to hurdles a winning one.
ASCOT 4.45
MAGICAL SPIRIT (system – time of year)
MAGICAL SPIRIT has a good record in the autumn and is worth a small interest now that he returns from yet another wind operation (his three previous wind surgeries were followed by a 7-2 win at Newcastle in September 2019, a 33-1 fourth at Haydock in September 2020 and an 11-1 third on unsuitably fast ground at Doncaster last May). Any rain will improve his chance and he went close in last year’s Shergar Cup Dash on his only previous course outing.
REDCAR 5.37
HELVETIQUE (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time visor)
I’ve wheeled out the ‘Ralph Beckett first-time blinkers’ system a few times in recent weeks and Be Lucky My Son won on that angle at Chelmsford on Thursday night. Those with long memories may recall that HELVETIQUE was another Beckett-trained first-time blinkered winner for this column at Windsor back in May where she bolted up by four lengths from a subsequent dual winner.
She’s 0-3 since then but the first-time visor could revitalise her today. Since the beginning of 2010, Beckett is seven from 28 with his first-time visored handicappers on turf for a profit of £23.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Three more finished second (22-1, 14-1 and 8-1) and the Racing Post’s forecast price of 25-1 looks a little insulting.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 1 October 2022
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers must sign up on mobile.
- Stake a minimum amount of £10 on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1.5 (1/2).
- A maximum of 3 x £10 free bets credited when a qualifying bet on selected events is settled.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 (3/10) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
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