Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 7-2 Catterick scorer IT’S MAISEY on Thursday and has four stats-based picks on Friday, January 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NAAS 1.12
BYTHESAMETOKEN (system – Fame And Glory, jumps, 8yo+)
Progeny of Fame And Glory, aged eight or older, have a solid record in the national hunt sphere, landing 64 of their 488 starts (13.1%) for a profit of £91.21 to a £1 level stake at SP. Ten-year-old BYTHESAMETOKEN reportedly lost a shoe when a modest second at Haydock last time and was in good form before that run, scoring at Killarney in October before a half-length runner-up effort at Down Royal the following month.
SEDGEFIELD 2.37
DR SANDERSON (system – J P McManus-owned low-grade jumps handicappers)
Leading owner J P McManus is well known for his success at the big spring festivals but he gets plenty of winners in Class 5 handicaps over jumps in Britain. This century, he’s won with 121 of the 573 qualifiers (21.1%) for a profit of £129.87 to a £1 level stake at SP. DR SANDERSON took a step back in the right direction when fourth at Catterick last time and might be able to take advantage of his sliding handicap mark.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00
RAVENSBOURNE (system – Ed Walker, 3yo handicappers)
Since the beginning of 2018, backing all Ed Walker-trained three-year-old handicappers would have found 44 winners from 195 bets (22.6%) for a profit of £49.16 to the usual £1 stake. Those who were beaten on their latest outing were 36 from 152 (23.7%) for a profit of £56.16. RAVENSBOURNE stumbled on leaving the stalls when only ninth at Newcastle last time and might do better in the first-time cheekpieces. Billy Loughnane is a good booking and she’s one of only two in the field who tend to race up with the pace.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
CAPTAIN WENTWORTH (system – beaten at Chelmsford LTO when ridden by apprentice jockey)
Chelmsford is proving to be a tough track for jockeys claiming a weight allowance, with only 23 from 340 proving successful in handicaps since May 1st last year for a loss of £197.89 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those same horses often make good bets when switched to another venue for their next start, especially when claimer-ridden again, with 14 winners from 87 bets in the same period for a profit of £50.50. CAPTAIN WENTWORTH never got involved from off the pace in a 6f handicap at the Essex venue last time and can reward each-way support in a race likely to be run to suit. His 13-race maiden status is the obvious worry, but he’s placed off higher marks on several occasions and ran with credit at Newcastle on his only previous Tapeta assignment.
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