Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to day two of the Aintree festival, Dundalk and Southwell for his four stats-based selections on Friday, April 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
AINTREE 1.45
CHIANTI CLASSICO (system – Mildmay Novices’ Chase, finished 1st or 2nd at Cheltenham festival last time out)
Horses who line up on the back of a Cheltenham festival win or runner-up effort have a fantastic recent record in the Mildmay Novices’ Chases, landing all nine renewals in the past ten years (from just 20 runners) for a profit of £12.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. This year’s qualifiers are CHIANTI CLASSICO and Inothewayurthinkin, with the first-name – the bigger price of the pair – just preferred. Kim Bailey’s seven-year-old powered to victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase last time to take his record since wind surgery to 1121 (3-4), with the sole defeat at Kempton behind course expert Flegmatik.
DUNDALK 4.30
PROUDLY YOURS (system – January foals in early-season 2yo races)
January foals enjoy a maturity edge over their rivals in two-year-old races in March/April, landing 32 of their 175 starts (18.3% strike-rate) since 2016 in Britain and Ireland for a profit of £76.97 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Ger Lyons-trained filly PROUDLY YOURS is one of two qualifiers in this 5f maiden (the other is outsider SIR YOSHI) and she can be backed to make a winning debut.
SOUTHWELL 6.00
RESTLESS PRINCE (system – Karl Burke, second-time out 3yos, all-weather)
Karl Burke has a fine record with three-year-olds on the all-weather who were having their second career start, scoring with 19 of the 76 qualifiers since the beginning of 2010 for a profit of £109.78 to a £1 level stake at SP. RESTLESS PRINCE could only finish a nine-length fourth of five at Newcastle on his debut last month but will improve for that experience and is worth a speculative punt.
SOUTHWELL 8.00
PRINCE ERIC (system – Time Test, Tapeta, 1m+)
Progeny of the sire Time Test have a 16 from 104 record when running over 1m or further on Tapeta for a huge profit of £213.45 to a £1 level stake at SP. PRINCE ERIC contributed with a comfortable course and distance win last month when drawn wider than ideal and can make it three wins from three starts since gelded.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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