Use our Newmarket ITV Racing trends on the second day of the 3-day July Festival on Friday 14th July 2023. You can use these trends to put history on your side and highlight the best profiles of horses based on previous winners.
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Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: July Festival Day Two, Friday 14th July 2023
It’s day two of the Newmarket July Festival this Friday (14th July 2023) and we’ve four of the seven races LIVE on ITV Racing. The action is spearheaded by the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (2:25) and the Group One Falmouth Stakes (3:35).
So, to help you find the winners, we’ve got the main Newmarket ITV Racing trends at this week’s July Festival – you can use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and putting history on your side.
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Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: July Festival Stats on Friday 14th July 2023
1.50 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV
The Newmarket stats here tell us to note horses that ran in the last 4 weeks, had won no more than twice and were placed in the top 6 last time out – step forward Tagabawa. This Godolphin New Approach gelding is also ridden by William Buick, who has won this race twice since 2015, and trained by the Charlie Appleby team that won this race last year. With just 4 career runs (2 wins) there should be more in the locker too and after taking a keen hold in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot last time did well to finish 6th (of 19). Of the rest, it’s hard to ignore the cracking record of the Mark Johnston yard in this race with 7 wins in the last 16. Son Charlie is now at the helm, so can he carry on the top strike-rate? They run Killybegs Warrior and Knockbrex, who will always be remembered for being Frankie Dettori’s last ever Royal Ascot ride.
bet365 Handicap Trends
- 14/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
- 13/16 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
- 13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/16 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
- 12/16 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
- 11/16 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
- 10/16 – Unplaced favourites
- 9/16 – Irish bred
- 8/16 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
- 7/16 – Trained by the Johnston yard (including 6 of last 10 runnings)
- 6/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
- 4/16 – Won last time out
- 2/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding
- 2/16 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 8)
- 1/16 – Winning favourites
2.25 – Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV
Only five runners head to post here and really just three of the entries can win. Albany Stakes third and fourth Soprano (non-runner) and Persian Dreamer are two of those, but Godolphin’s Star Mystery has been ultra-impressive in winning her last two starts (11 and 4 lengths), with the most recent in a Listed event over this course and distance. Another step up is required now into a Group Two, but she’s one of just two proven distance winners in the field and the way she’s been winning suggests she could have a very bright future for the ‘boys in blue’.
Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes Trends
- 19/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
- 19/19 – Had raced at least twice before
- 18/19 – Had won between 1-2 times before
- 16/19 – Foaled in Feb or March
- 17/19 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
- 16/19 – Placed favourites
- 15/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
- 15/19 – Won by a UK-based yard
- 14/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
- 14/19 – Had won over 6f before
- 12/19 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
- 10/19 – Won last time out
- 9/19 – Winning favourites
- 3/19 – Trained by the Hannon team
- 3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 7)
- 3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
- 3/19 – Drawn in stall 1 (2 of the last 4)
- 3 of the last 8 winners drawn in stall 7
3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV
Trainer Saeed Bin Surror won this in 2021 and Godolphin has won 2 of the last five. With that in mind, the consistent Live Your Dream stands out, who was infact the Bin Suroor winner in this event a few years ago. This Iffraaj gelding has hit the top three in 10 of his 12 starts (4 wins) and didn’t disgrace when third (of 18) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes last time out. We know he stays further too so the step back up in trip is fine and the promising Kevin Stott, who had a great Royal Ascot, has been booked to ride. Of the others, the Johnston yard also have a decent record in the race (3 of the last 4) so their longer-priced Themaxwecan is a worthy saver.
bet365 Trophy Handicap Trends
- Just 5 previous running
- The Saeed Bin Suroor yard won this race in 2021
- The Johnston yard won this race in 2019, 2020 and 2022
- The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
- Godolphin have won 2 of the 5 past runnings
- 5/5 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
- 3/5 – Aged 4 years-old
- 3/5 – Carried 9-0 or more
- 3/5 – Trained by the Johnston yard
- 1/5 – Winning favourites
- Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 33% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
- Trainer George Scott has a 33% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
- Trainer Richard Hannon has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
- Jockey Saffie Osborne has a 40% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
3.35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV
The big Falmouth Stakes trend tells us that 42 of the last 44 winners of this race were aged 3 or 4 – not great news for Via Sistina, who is aged 5. It’s been a fair contest for trainer Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 7) and Ryan Moore (3 of the last 9) so their entry Never Ending Story has to be noted at a fair price. Prosperous Voyage won the race last year and is the only CD winner in the field – she’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Soviet Song in 2004-05.
But the horse that looks open to the most improvement is the recently purchased Wathnan Racing filly Remarquee. This Ralph Beckett runner has won 2 of her 4 starts but took a big leap forward last time when second in the Coronation Stakes to the classy Tahiyra at Royal Ascot. This 3 year-old will also be ridden by last year’s winning jockey Rob Hornby.
Of the rest, Coppice and Nashwa look big players too for the Gosden camp who have won this Group One twice in the last 11 years.
Falmouth Stakes Trends
- 20/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 19/21 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
- 17/21 – Had 2+ runs that season
- 16/21– Won over at least 1 mile previously
- 16/21 – Won from stall 5 or lower
- 16/21 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
- 15/21 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
- 12/21 – Favourites placed
- 7/21 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
- 7/21 – Previous Group One winners
- 7/21 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
- 6/21 – Won their last race
- 3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 9)
- 2/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 7 runnings)
- 2/21 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 11 runnings)
- 2/21 – Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 9 runnings)
- 2/21 – French-trained winners
- 42 of the last 44 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old
- Prosperous Voyage (16/1) won this race in 2022
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RELATED: Falmouth Stakes 2023 Betting: Favourite Via Sistina Has A Huge 95% Stat To Overcome
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