Four Key Thyestes Chase Trends To Help Find Today’s Gowran Park Winner

Escaria Ten
Escaria Ten

We give you four key Thyestes Chase trends to help narrow down your search for the winner of Thursday’s Gowran Park 3m 1f contest – a race trainer Gordon Elliott has a staggering 50% of the 18 runners entered.

  • Thyestes Chase winners often end up running in the Grand National
  • Trainer Willie Mullins looking for his nineth winner in the Gowran Park race
  • Gordon Elliott has 9 of the 18 entries for Thursday’s 3m1f contest
  • Favourites have a 65% strike-rate of placing in the Thyestes Chase
  • Horses carrying 10st 9lbs or less have edged it in recent times

Thyestes Chase Trends: Four Key Stats to Have in Your Corner

The Grade A Thyestes Handicap Chase is always a competitive affair, and this year is no different with 18 Thyestes Chase runners declared to run at Gowran Park this Thursday.

It’s also a race that is often billed as a Grand National trial.

However, even though many winners have headed to Aintree later in the season we are still to see a horse win both contests in the same campaign. That said, both Hedgehunter, who won the Theystes Chase in 2004 and Numbersixvalverde (2005), did go onto become Grand National winners later in their careers.

12 months ago the Martin Brassil-trained Longhouse Poet won the Thyestes Chase and went onto finish a respectable 6th in the 2022 Aintree Grand National behind Noble Yeats.

Let’s take a look at our four best 2023 Thyestes Chase trends to take into the race.

1. 65% Of The last 20 Winners Carried Just 10st 9lbs or Less

Being a handicap chase, then weight carried is always a good place to start. In the last 20 runnings of the Thyestes Chase we’ve had 13 winners carry just 10st 9lbs, including the last two winners Coko Beach (10-6) and Longhouse Poet (10-9).

If this stat is to be backed-up again, then the top 11 Thyestes Chase runners on the card would fall down here – Escaria Ten, Pencilfulloflead, Carefully Selected, Coko Beach, Gabbys Cross, Frontal Assault, Braeside, Espanito Bello, Defi Bleu, Lieutenant Command and Punitive.

2. Favourites Have a 20% Strike-rate In the Last 20 Runnings & 65% Record of Placing

Considering the competitive nature of the race it’s not been too bad a contest for the market leaders in recent years with 4 of the last 20 winning (20%). While, this percentage increases to 65% if just looking for the favourite to be placed.

Pencilfulloflead, Espanito Bello and Escaria Ten are disputing favouritism.

3. Respect Anything Trainer Willie Mullins Runs

The powerful Willie Mullins yard have won the Thyestes Chase 8 times in the past – more than any other stable. Their most recent successes in the race came only in 2019 (Invitation Only) and 2020 (Total Recall), while since 2014 they also won the race with the well-known pair On His Own and Djakadam.

Mullins has three runners entered in 2023 with Carefully Selected, the ride of main stable jockey Paul Townend, Egality Mans and Captain Kangaroo. While he’s also got two of the three reserves in Rambranlt’jac and Stones And Roses.

It’s also worth noting trainer Gordon Elliott as he’s won the race twice since 2018 and of the 18 runners going to post on Thursday – he’s got half the field running in his name.

4. A Run in The Last 4 Weeks Seems Crucial

Coming into any horse race fit and off the back of a good recent run is more often than not a big plus and this applies again here. In the last 20 runnings we’ve seen 90% of Thyestes Chase winners having raced within the last 4 weeks.

This would mean we are looking for horses that ran in the last 28 days (or so) as always best to give these age stats a bit of breathing space. With that in mind, anything that’s run 35 days of more ago would really have this stat to overcome, including Escaria Ten, Pencilfulloflead, Coko Beach, Braside, Espanito Bello, Punitive, Dunboyne and Darren’s Hope

Lastes Thyestes Chase Betting

  • Carefully Selected 6/1
  • Pencilfulloflead 7/1
  • Escaria Ten 7/1
  • Espanito Bello 15/2
  • Gabbys Cross 9/1
  • Punitive 11/1
  • Darrens Hope 12/1
  • 14/1 Bar
  • Note: Odds are subject to change

Thyestes Chase Trends in Full

  • 20/20 – Won by an Irish-based stable
  • 18/20 – Irish bred
  • 18/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (rules) before
  • 18/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
  • 15/20 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
  • 15/20 – Aged 9 or younger
  • 13/20 – Placed favourites
  • 13/20 – Carried 10-9 or less
  • 11/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
  • 10/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 10/20 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 9/20 – Had run at Gowran Park over fences before
  • 9/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
  • 7/20 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
  • 7/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (won the race 8 times in all)
  • 5/20 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all failed to finish)
  • 4/20 – Winning favourites
  • 3/20 – Won last time out
  • 2/20 – Ridden by Danny Mullins(2 of the last 6)
  • 2/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 10.5/1

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What Date & Time Is The 2023 Thyestes Chase?

📅Time/Date: 2:50pm (Thurs 26th January)
🏇Racecourse: Gowran Park (3m 1f)
💰 Purse/Winner: €59,000
📺 TV: RTE2 / Racing TV


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Recent Thyestes Chase Winners

  • 2022 – LONGHOUSE POET (9/1)
  • 2021 – COKO BEACH (9/1)
  • 2020 – TOTAL RECALL (16/1)
  • 2019 – INVITATION ONLY (4/1 fav)
  • 2018 – MONBEG NOTORIOUS (7/2 fav)

WATCH: Longhouse Poet Winning The 2022 Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park


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