Use Andy Newton’s bet365 Gold Cup trends to help find the winner of Saturday’s big Sandown race as last year’s winner and recent Grand National fifth Kitty’s Light will be looking to defend his Esher crown.
You can use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners, which will help you narrow down the runners and put history on your side.
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bet365 Gold Cup Trends to Help You Find the Winner
The 2023/24 National Hunt jumps season draws to a close this weekend with the bet365 Gold Cup Day at Sandown.
There’s a cracking 7-race card to take in, with four races on the ITV network that include the Celebration Chase (3:00pm), where racing fans can expect to see the Willie Mullins-trained El Fabiolo in action as the Closutton handler is in pole position to win the UK trainers’ championship. He could take on last year’s winner and recent Melling Chase hero Jonbon,
However, it’s the bet365 Gold Cup (3:35) that is often billed at the meetings showcase race – a Premier Handicap run over 3m 4 1/4f so after the recent Grand Nationals at Aintree and Ayr it’s once again all about staying power here.
We can expect to see last year’s winner Kitty’s Light, who was also third in 2022 and more recently ran fifth in the Grand National at Aintree. Despite having a hard race at Aintree, he’s a horse that takes his racing well and won this contest 12 months ago only a week after taking the Scottish Grand National.
The last horse to win the bet365 Gold Cup in back-to-back years was Topsham Bay in 1992/93. But a note to Ad Hoc, who won the race twice more recently – just not in returning years (2001 and 2003).
DID YOU KNOW? There has only been ONE winning Bet365 Gold Cup favourite since 2000?
When Is The 2024 bet365 Gold Cup?
📅Time/Date: 3:35pm (Saturday 27th April 2024)
🏇Racecourse: Sandown (3m 4 1/2f)
💰 Purse/Winner: £95,659
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
The bet365 Gold Cup Favourites Have a Poor Recent Record
The first big bet365 Gold Cup trend to have on your radar it that it’s been a dire race for favourite backers in recent times, despite last year’s winner Kitty’s Light, who won as the 11/4 jolly, breaking this stat.
Prior to Kitty’s Light last year, must go back to 2000 and a horse called Beau to find the last winning bet365 Gold Cup favourite.
Meaning 95% of the last 20 runnings went to a non-favourite.
As a result, the average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 13/1, so don’t worry if your fancy is a bigger price. But do note that 12 of the last 20 winners still came from the top 7 horses in the market. Suggesting the horses second, third and fourth in the betting should be respected.
At this stage, the 2023 hero Kitty’s Light is high up in the betting again and looks set to go off favourite again – despite being rated 5lbs more this time.
Look For Horses That Ran In The Last 63 Days
With a massive 19 of the last 20 winners (95%) having raced in the last 63 days this is another monster stat to have in your corner.
Of course, some leeway here is always advised with the race date slightly moving each.
However, the horses that last ran 63+ are Threeunderthrufive (70 days) and Amirite (122 days) – to of the more fancied runners.
80% Of the Last 20 Winners Were Aged Between 7-9
Next up is age, as 16 of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger – with all of these winners 7, 8 or 9. Backed up again in 2023 with Kitty’s Light aged 7.
Of those three ages, it’s been the 8 year olds that have the best record – winning 35% of the last 20 – while be very wary of any 6 year-olds in the race as there’s been just one winner that age since 1959.
While at the other end of the age spectrum the last 11 year-old winner was Tidal Bay in 2012 and between 2008 and 2012 (inc) there was a little run for the oldtimers with Church Island (2010) and Monkerhostin (2008) also winning 11 year-olds.
The horses that are NOT aged between 7-9 this year are – Certainly Red (10), Enrilo (10), Rapper (10), Fortescue (10) and Sam Brown (12),
Look For Horses Carrying 11st 5lbs Or Less in Weight
Being a handicap, then weight carried is the next bet365 Gold Cup trend to look for.
18 of the last 20 winners won with 11st 5lbs or less on their backs. While 78% had 11st or less, plus if you want to take this weight stat a bit further and 5 of the last 120 winners had just 10st.
Kitty’s Light won with 10st 8lbs in 2023 and since 2015 there have been six winners carrying 10st 12lbs or less. He’ll have 11st 3lbs this year.
The horse carrying 11st 6lbs or MORE (to rule out) in 2024 are – Le Milos, Minella Cocooner, Does He Know, Sam Brown and Threeunderthrufive.
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65% Of the Last 20 Winners Rated 140+
Following on from the weight trend, it’s also worth knowing that 13 of the last 20 bet365 Gold Cup winners were rated 140+.
Those rated 139 or less (to rule out) if you like this stat are – Slipway, Rapper, Fortescue, Certainly Red, Enrilo, Weveallbeencaught, Bangers And Cash, Your Own Story, Flash De Touzaine and Flash Collonges.
Don’t Worry If Your Fancy Didn’t Run Well Last Time Out
Next is to look each horse’s recent run. As coming into the bet365 Gold Cup off the back of a good recent run isn’t actually a big plus.
This is backed up with 11 of the last 20 winners placed 4th or worse in their last race.
The horses that raced fit the bill here (ran 4th or worse last time) are Flash Collonges, Flash De Touzaine, Weveallbeencaught, Rapper, Aime Desjy, Amirite, Annual Invictus, Kinondo Kwetu, Nick Rocket, Le Milos and last year’s winner Kitty’s Light, who was fifth in the Grand National last time.
Which Trainers Have The Best Recent Records In The bet365 Gold Cup?
The Paul Nicholls stable have also done well in this race recently.
The Ditcheat handler has won the race four times over the years, with the first coming in 2001 with Ad Hoc and his most recent Just A Par in 2015.
Nicholls also won the race in 2021 with Enrilo, who is entered again, but the horse was placed 3rd after a stewards’ enquiry.
One of the other Nicholls main hopes in 2024 will be topweight Threeunderthrufive, who was a good winner of the Swinley Handicap Chase when last seen in February at Ascot. Plus he’s also got outsider Flash Collonges, with Bryony Frost booked to ride.
The other big trainers chasing the championship, Harry Skelton and Willie Mullins are both still to win the bet365 Gold Cup. Skelton has Le Milos entered, while Mullins is sending over Minella Cocooner, Nick Rocket and Aime Desjy.
Look Out For Conditional (Claiming) Jockeys
It could also pay to note runners that will be ridden by a conditional, or claiming, jockey. Why? Well, three of the last eight winners were ridden by jockeys claiming a handy weight pull, which obviously helps over this extreme 3m 4 1/2f trip.
At this stage, the horses that will be ridden by a conditional jockey are – Enrilo (Angus Cheleda), Fortescue (Hugh Nugent) Annual Invictus (Freddie Gordon) and Sam Brown (Freddie Gingell).
bet365 Gold Cup Trends to Help Find the Winner
See below our in-depth bet365 Gold Cup trends from the last 20 runnings – you can use these to find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these Sandown stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 19/20 – Ran in the last 63 days
- 18/20 – Carried 11-5 or less
- 16/20 – Won over 3m or further before
- 16/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- 15/20 – Carried 11-0 or less
- 14/20 – Priced 14/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/20 – Officially rated 140 or higher
- 12/20 – From the top 7 in the betting market
- 12/20 – Ran in the last 25 days
- 11/20 – Placed 4th or worse in last race
- 5/20 – Won with 10st in weight
- 4/20 – Won their last race
- 3/20– Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 3/20 – Raced in the Scottish Grand National last time out
- 3/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
- 2/20 – Raced in the Aintree Grand National last time out
- 2/20– Trained by Philip Hobbs
- 2/20 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
- 2/20 – Trained by Alan King (2 of last 4 winners)
- 1/20 – Favourites
- The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13/1
Sandown Bet365 Gold Cup Facts
- Only 1 outright winning favourite since 1990 (Kitty’s Light, 2023)
- Only one 6 year-old winner since 1959
- 11 of the last 16 winners aged 7 or 8
- 3 of the last 8 winners were ridden by conditional (claiming) jockeys
- 25 of the last 32 (78%) winners carried less than 11st
- 8 year-olds – 7 of the last 20 runnings (35%)
- 16 of the last 20 (80%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has four wins in the race
bet365 Gold Cup Recent Winners
- 2023 – KITTY’S LIGHT (11/4 fav)
- 2022 – HEWICK (16/1)
- 2021 – POTTERMAN (12/1)
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
- 2018 – STEP BACK (7/1)
- 2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
- 2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
- 2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
- 2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
- 2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
bet365 Gold Cup Latest Betting
See the latest bet365 Gold Cup betting odds with the sponsors.
- Kitty’s Light 11/4
- Nick Rockett 7/1
- Threeunderthrufive 8/1
- Le Milos 11/1
- Minella Cocooner 12/1
- Amirite 14/1
- Guetapan Collonges 16/1
- Your Own Story 16/1
- Kinondo Kwetu 20/1
- Weveallbeencaught 20/1
Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request
WATCH: Kitty’s Light Winning The 2023 bet365 Gold Cup
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