Use Andy Newton’s 2024 Scottish Grand National trends to help find the winner of this Saturday’s big Ayr race. Yes, after last weekend’s Aintree Grand National – the ‘National Bandwagon’ heads north of border to Scotland this weekend and we’ve got all the key stats to help you find the horses with the best profiles based on past winners.
Scottish Grand National Trends to Help You Find the Winner
Grand National fever continues this weekend as after last week’s dramatic Aintree National we head to Scotland this Saturday for their big marathon race.
It’s a contest that carries a £112k first prize these days so it’s no surprise to see trainers from all corners of the UK (and Ireland) targeting the contest.
Last year we saw the Welsh handler Christian Williams win the Ayr race with last week’s Grand National fifth Kitty’s Light, having also won the prize in 2022 with Win My Wings. However, the Welsh-based handler doesn’t have a runner in the race this year – but big-gun yards – Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton, who are all in a three-way trainers’ title race, do.
Of that trio, Paul Nicholls is certainly a trainer to have on your radar – the Ditcheat stable has won the race three times over the years. The first coming way back in 1997 with the AP McCoy-ridden Belmont King, while his most-recent successes came in 2016 and 2017 with Vicente.
When Is The 2023 Scottish Grand National?
📅Time/Date: 3:35pm (Saturday 20th April 2024)
🏇Racecourse: Ayr
💰 Purse/Winner: £112,540
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV (full race schedule for the Ayr card here)
You can bet on the 2024 Scottish Grand National by creating accounts with the leading horse racing betting sites. There is also £1,000’s of horse racing free bets to claim along the way – meaning you can sign-up to one of the featured bookmakers and also grab some nice Scottish Grand National betting offers to use on Saturday’s huge Ayr race.
The Last 20 Scottish Grand National Winners All Ran Within 57 Days
First up we need to look for Scottish Grand National runners that had been on the track within 57 days.
This trend has paid off in ALL of the last 20 renewals of the big Ayr race.
With these ‘days last ran’ stats, it’s always best to give them a bit of slack – especially around this time of the year (Easter-ish) as race days can move a lot more than in other parts of the season.
The horses that race 60+ days ago – and will, therefore, have this stat to overcome, are – Inis Oirr, Spanish Harlem, Gold Cup Bailly and Surrey Quest.
We can also take this Scottish Grand National trend further as 14 of the last 20 winners also ran between 30 and 57 days. This suggests, horses need a small break since their last run, but still need to be match-fit (if you get my drift).
In addition to the horses that last ran 60+ days ago, there are the ones that ran in the last 29 days, which could also be ruled out – We’llhavewan, Punitive, Klarc Kent, Macdermott, Elvis Mail and Mr Incredible.
Horses Aged 8 Or Older Have the Best Recent Records
Next up is to look for the age of the horse, with 17 of the last 20 winners aged 8 or older.
Kitty’s Light did kick this stat into touch last season – winning as a 7 year-old. However, it’s still a 85% return and should be ignored.
The younger (7 or less) horses running in 2024 are – Stay Away Fay (7), Spanish Harlem (6), Macdermott (6), Inis Oirr (7), Surrey Quest (7) and Egbert (7).
The race has also produced winners aged between 8-10 in 70% of the last 20 runnings but we’ve no real old-timers in the race this year – with the oldest runners 10.
Look For Horses With a ‘Top Six’ Finish Last Time Out
Coming into the race in form is another big plus to look for as a massive 90% of recent winners finished in the top 6 last time out. While you can take this further with 70% having been placed in the first three in their most recent outing.
Horses that hit the first 6 last time are – Elvis Mail, Beauport, Spanish Harlem, Ballygrifincottage, Macdermott, Tommie Beau, Broken Halo, Mr Vango, Autonomous Cloud, Anglers Crag, Inis Oirr, My Silver Lining, Git Maker, Klarc Kent, Whacker Clan, Egbert, Secret Reprieve, We’llhavewan and Punitive.
RELATED: Follow Andy Newton’s LAY OF THE DAY horse racing pick here
65% Of the Last 20 Scottish Grand National Winners Carried 10st 9lbs or Less
Being a handicap then weight carried is another Scottish Grand National trend to look out for in recent times (last 20 runnings) we’ve had 65% of winners carry 10st 9lbs or less.
However, a small word of caution here as 5 of the last 7 winners did win with 10st 12lbs or more, so this stat could be levelling out a bit. The last three winners lumped 11st, 10st 12lbs and 11st 1lb to victory. The horses carrying 11st 1lbs or more this year are – Beauport, Elvis Mail, Mr Incredible and Stay Away Fay.
Regardless, it’s still a stat to apply and see if it helps narrow the search.
Don’t Worry If Your Fancy Is a Double-Figure Price In The Betting
Price hasn’t seemed to matter when it comes to finding the Scottish Grand National winner. Yes, last year’s winner as the joint-favourite, but in 2019 we had a 25/1 winner and in 2018 a 33/1 hero.
In fact, 13 of the last 20 successful horses returned a double-figure price in the betting.
65% Of Recent Winners Came from The Top 7 In The Betting
However, despite horses priced in double-figured having a fair record, it’s still worth knowing that 13 of the last 20 winners hailed from the top 7 in the betting market.
At this stage – the likes of Git Maker, Inis Oirr, Spanish Harlem, Macdermott, Anglers Crag, Mr Incredible and Mr Vango are all near the head of the market – but a lot can change between now and the race.
How Have the Scottish Grand National Favourites Fared?
The quick answer here is – better in the last two runnings as we’ve seen a co and joint favourite win. However, in the last 20 years there have only been three market leaders win – with the other Vicente in 2017. But he was another joint-jolly, so we’ve actually still not had an outright favourite in this period.
This year’s race sees the Willie Mullins pair of Macdermott and Mr Incredible vying for the favourites berth, with Git Maker, Spanish Harlem and Anglers Crag just behind them.
Trainer Paul Nicholls Has Won Two Of The Last Seven Runnings
In 2021 we saw Aintree Grand National-winner Lucinda Russell land the Scottish National with Mighty Thunder. She’s got Inis Oirr going this year.
With top Irish trainer Willie Mullins topping the UK trainers title after his Aintree Grand National win last weekend he’s going for it too. He’s never won the Scottish National but will have many runners as he looks for more prize money and will be looking to follow in the footsteps of Ginger McCain, who won both Nationals in 1974 in the same season.
At this stage Mullins has six running – Macdermott, We’llhavewan, Mr Incredible, Klarc Kent, Ontheropes and Spanish Harlem, who is the pick of last week’s Grand National winning rider Paul Townend.
Another yard that has a good record in the Scottish Grand National is Paul Nicholls. The Ditcheat yard won the race in ‘back-to-back’ years in 2016 and 2017 with Vicente. They also won the race way back in 1997 with Belmont King.
Paul Nicholls has Stay Away Fay and Broken Halo entered this year.
The other trainer to note is Nigel Twiston-Davies – he’s won the race three times (1992, 1994 and 2009) – he’s got recent Midland National winner – Beauport.
Scottish Grand National Trends to Help Find the Winner
See below our in-depth Scottish Grand National trends from the last 20 runnings – you can use these to find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these Ayr stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 20/20 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
- 18/20 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
- 17/20 – Aged 8 or older
- 17/20 – Carried 11-1 or less
- 17/20 – Coming from a different winning yard
- 16/20 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
- 15/20 – French or Irish bred
- 14/20 – Finished in the first three last time out
- 14/20 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
- 14/20 – Had won over 3m or further
- 14/20 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
- 13/20 – Carried 10-9 or less
- 13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 13/20 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
- 7/20 – Won last time out
- 7/20 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
- 6/20 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
- 3/20 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
- 3/20 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
- 3/20 – Winning favourites
- 2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7 winners and 3 wins in total)
- 2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
- 2/20 – Trained by Christian Williams (last 2)
- Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
- The last two winners won the Eider Chase earlier that season
- 2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
- The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 19/1
Scottish Grand National Recent Winners
2023 – KITTY’S LIGHT (4/1 jfav)
2022 – WIN MY WINGS (13/2 cfav)
2021 – MIGHTY THUNDER (8/1)
2020 – No Race
2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
WATCH: Kitty’s Light Winning The 2023 Scottish Grand National
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