2024 Grand National Trends: Key Stats To Find The Aintree Winner

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Grand National Free Bets

Use Andy Newton’s 2024 Grand National trends to help find the winner of Saturday’s big Aintree race. You can use the key Grand National stats to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

Grand National Trends to Help You Find the Winner

The Randox Grand National this Saturday at Aintree is the biggest horse race on the planet – with millions from around the globe hoping to find the winner of the gruelling 4m+ race.

There will be a maximum of 34 Grand National runners (down from 40) heading to post in search of the £500,000 first prize, with last year’s winner Corach Rambler one of the leading fancies again despite having 14lbs more in weight to carry.

But does Corach Rambler and the other main entries fit the key Grand National trends – or are there a few bigger-priced runners lurking further down the betting?

History has a habit of repeating itself in the National – so, why not have the main stats and Grand National odds on your side?

For example – four of the last 8 National winners were aged 8, while 5 of the last 6 also wore a tongue-tie – interesting.

Let’s look at some of the main Aintree stats in a bit more detail – which can hopefully point you in the direction of the 2024 winning Grand National horse.

What Date & Time Is The 2024 Grand National?

📅Time/Date: 4:00pm (Saturday 13th April 2024)
🏇Racecourse: Aintree
💰 Purse/Winner: £1m / £500,000
📺 TV: ITV / RacingTV

Grand National Trends: 32 Year Aintree Stats

  • 31/32 – Officially rated 137 or higher
  • 30/32 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
  • 28/32 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
  • 28/32 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
  • 25/32 – Returned a double-figure price
  • 25/32 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
  • 25/32 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
  • 25/32 – Aged 9 or older
  • 23/32 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
  • 21/32 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
  • 20/32 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
  • 20/32 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
  • 19/32 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
  • 18/32 – Placed favourites
  • 18/32 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
  • 16/32 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
  • 13/32 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 12/32 – Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 17 years)
  • 8/32 – Won last time out
  • 7/32 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 13 of the last 15 were having their debuts)
  • 7/32 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
  • 3/32 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
  • 2/32 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • 2/32 – Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
  • 1/32 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 138 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 19 of the last 24 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 5 of the last 6 winners wore a tongue tie
  • 21 of the last 29 winners aged between 8-10
  • Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
  • 13 of the last 15 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
  • Just one 7 year-old or younger to win since 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
  • 14 of the last 26 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 14 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 10 of the last 20 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 21 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 28 renewals (but 4 in the last 8 years)
  • Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 37 years (83 have attempted)
  • 24 of the last 26 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Just One Grand National Winning 7 Year-old Since 1940

In 2022 we saw the 7 year-old Noble Yeats win the Grand National and in the process kicked a monster trend into touch. Which was that prior to that win, the last 7 year-old winner was in 1940.

Last year the fancied Gaillard Du Mesnil managed third as a 7 year-old, while Capodanno, Velvet Elvis and Cape Gentleman were all pulled-up 7 year-olds.

50% Of The Last 8 National Winners Were Aged 8

In recent times being an 8 year-old has been a big advantage, with 4 of the last 8 National winners ticking this age group – including Tiger Roll in 2018 and Minella Times in 2021, who won for jockey Rachael Blackmore.

Three 11 Year-old Winners Since 2012

At the other end of the age spectrum we’ve seen three 11 year-old winners since 2012. In fact, they all came in a row – winning between 2012 and 2014.

But 21 of the last 29 winners were aged between 8-10, while there’s only been one 12 year-old winner in the last 27 runnings.

Look For Horses That Last Ran Within The Last 55 Days

Next up is to look for horses that were last on the track within the last 55 days. You can check this with the little number next to the horse’s name on the race card. This number will tell you how many days ago that horse last raced.

So, fitness and a recent run on the course – within the last 55 days – is key, as a massive 30 of the last 32 (94%) Grand National winners ticked this stat.

The other thing to take into account with the National is that the date of the race can often move slightly (a week here and there) with Easter, so we always feel that it’s best to give this Grand National trend a bit of leeway – a few days extra.

Therefore, we are really looking for horses that last ran 60+ days ago to rule out.

78% Of the Last 32 National Winners Also Ran Within The Last 34 Days

If you want to knock out more runners, then you can also take this Grand National trend a bit further – as 25 of the last 32 winners also ran within the last 34 days. This will put a line through a lot more horses, but don’t forget to give it a bit of breathing space – we’d say look for horses that ran 40+ days ago to rule out to be safe.

Just 2 Grand National Winners Since 1978 Have Won With 11st 6lbs or More In Weight

Being a handicap, then weight carried in the Grand National is another thing to look for.

Run over a gruelling 4m 2 1/2f trip, then you don’t need to be a genius to know the lesser weight carried will help.

That said, those that carry bigger weights can still go well – after all, they are the better horses in the race, so their class often gets them through.

However, a REALLY big weight is still hard to win with in the National as since 1978 only two winners have won with 11st 6lbs or more. These were Many Clouds (2015) and Neptune Collonges (2012).

Past Winners and Placed Horses from The Previous Year Have Poor Records

In 2018 and 2019 we saw the popular Tiger Roll win ‘back-to-back’ Grand Nationals, but prior to that it was Red Run in 1973 and 1974 that defended his title with success.

Therefore, it’s not easy to come back and win the National again – mainly because the handicapper has given the current winner more weight to carry.

It’s also not been a good race for horses placed in the previous year’s race to come back and win the following year. In the last 36 years we’ve seen 80 horses that finished in the top 4 in the previous year’s race come back the next year – and only two have won.

Last year’s placed Grand National horses were as follows – with the first three home all back for more in 2024.

  • 1st Corach Rambler
  • 2nd Vanillier
  • 3rd Gaillard Du Mesnil
  • 4th Noble Yeats

Winning Form at The Cheltenham Festival Is A Negative

Many horse racing punters also look back to the Cheltenham Festival to find clues, but winners at the main Prestbury Park meeting don’t have a great record of winning the National.

Yes, Corach Rambler, who won the 2023 Ultima Handicap Chase, defied this tredn, But only four horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that season have gone onto win the Aintree Grand National a month later since 1961!

That said, running at the Festival is okay (just not winning there) as 13 of the last 32 National winners had run at the meeting. Including the last two winners – Noble Yeats and Corach Rambler, who both ran in the Ultima Handicap Chase.

Does The Grand National Favourite Have a Good Record?

Considering there are 34 runners (used to be 40) in the race and 30 tricky Grand National fences to jump, the favourite doesn’t have a bad record.

In the last 32 years, we’ve seen 7 Grand National favourites (or joint) win, which is a fair 22% strike-rate.

Tiger Roll in 2019 was a winning favourite, as was Corach Rambler last year in 2023 (8/1). 15 of the last last 27 winners also returned 14/1 or shorter.

However, certainly don’t be put off if your fancy is a bigger price. In 2022 Noble Yeats won at 50/1 and in 2009 Mon Mome returned a monster 100/1.

In short, the Grand National odds don’t really matter much.

The Irish Have Won 5 of the Last 7 Grand Nationals

The Grand National has been a race the Irish-trained horses have dominated in recent time too. The Emerald Isle runners have won 5 of the last 7 renewals and 9 of the last 20.

We’ve seen 4 of the last 5 winners trained in Ireland, with only Lucinda Russell flying the Great Britain flag in recent years with wins in 2017 and 2023.

Horses Having Their Grand National Debuts Have Good Stats

Many feel that having tasted the Grand National fences before is a plus. Yes, it is as there are many other races that are run over these unique obstacles – like the Becher Chase and Grand Sefton Chase.

However, experience in the big race itself isn’t that important.

13 of the last 15 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race – backed up again in 2022 with Noble Yeats and 2023 with Corach Rambler.

Only Tiger Roll (2019) and Mon Mome (2009 in recent times had run in the race before.

Which Grand National Trainers Have The Best Recent Records?

Trainer Gordon Elliott is the clear pick of the current batch of trainers. The Irish handler has won the Grand National three times in the past – twice with Tiger Roll (2018 and 2019) and back in 2007 with Silver Birch.

However, after winning in 2023 with Corach Rambler – Lucinda Russell, who also won with One For Arthur in 2017, is catching up with two wins.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has two wins as well (1998, Earth Summit and 2002 Bindaree), but these were a while back.

Willie Mullins has just the one win in the race to date – Hedgehunter in 2005.

Other 2024 Grand National Trends to Note

Respect Horses That Ran Over Hurdles That Season

Another Grand National trend to look for is to see if your fancy has run over hurdles that season. This is backed up by 10 of the last 20 winners having had a spin over the smaller obstacles that term. The theory here is that the trainers like to protect a horse’s handicap mark over fences, but still keep them race fit.

Look For Horses That Had Fallen Or Unseated No More Than Twice

Having to tackle 30 tricky fences, then jumping will often win the day (as well as stamina). Therefore, you don’t want a dodgy jumper on your hands, and this is backed up with a massive 24 of the last 26 National winners having fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers.

88% Of The Last 32 Winners Had Won Over at Least 3m Before

In 2021, we saw the JP McManus-owned Minella Times win the race stepping up in trip significantly for the fist time.

Prior to that win, the 8 year-old (at the time) had only won over 2m6f, so the 4m 2m 1/2 trip was a total unknown for connections.

But with 28 of the last 32 Grand National winners having won over at least 3m in the past, it’s still preferred to have proven stamina in your corner.

5 Of The Last 6 Winners Wore a Tongue-Tie

Finally – there is also another interesting Grand National trend building up that has seen five of the last six winners wear a tongue-tie. Backed up again in 2023 with Corach Rambler sporting this form of headgear or equipment.

While three of the last five winners also wore headgear of some form.

Grand National Recent Winners

  • 2023 – Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
  • 2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
  • 2021 – Minella Times (11/1)
  • 2020 – Cancelled (Covid)
  • 2019 – Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
  • 2018 – Tiger Roll (10/1)
  • 2017 – One For Arthur (14/1)
  • 2016 – Rule The World 33/1
  • 2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
  • 2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
  • 2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
  • 2012 – Neptune Collonges 33/1

Grand National Betting Odds

See the latest 2024 Grand National odds that you can get by joining up with the best UK horse racing betting sites.

  • Corach Rambler 4/1
  • I Am Maximus 8/1
  • Vanillier 10/1
  • Panda Boy 12/1
  • Kitty’s Light 14/1
  • Meetingofthewaters 14/1
  • Mahler Mission 16/1
  • Galvin 20/1
  • Minella Indo 20/1
  • Mr Incredible 20/1
  • Noble Yeats 20/1
  • Capodanno 25/1
  • Chemical Energy 25/1
  • Latenightpass 25/1
  • Limerick Lace 25/1

Note: Others on request and odds subject to change

WATCH: Corach Rambler winning the 2023 Grand National


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