The 2023 Grand National trends suggest that having proven experience in the race ISN’T actually that important. Let’s explain why and we’ll highlight the Grand National runners that are making their debuts in the race.
Grand National Trends: 86% Of the Last 14 Aintree Winners Were Having Their FIRST Start In The Race
The Grand National requires the winner to tackle 30 tricky fences – probably the toughest in the world – so you’d think that having proven experience jumping them would be a big plus.
Wrong!
The Grand National trends in recent years suggest that having run in the race previously is not as important as it used to be.
This is backed up with a massive 12 of the last 14 Grand National winners (86%) having their first run in the world’s greatest steeplechase.
Maybe, it’s the unknown that catches the horses out and once they’ve experienced the race, they know just how tough it is – who knows?
Or perhaps, it’s the handicapper that is making it harder for past champions or horses that ran well before – by hiking them up the ratings the following season.
Tiger Roll and Mon Mome The Only Two Winners Since 2008 To Have Run In The Race Before
So, when looking back over the last 14 Grand National winners, it’s only Tiger Roll, who won the race twice (2018 & 2019) and the shock 100/1 hero Mon Mome in 2009 that had run in the race previously.
The Tiger Roll story is self-explanatory, as he won the prize ‘back-to-back’ and therefore had already run in the race. While Mon Mome became one of the biggest-priced Grand National winners ever when going in a 100/1 in 2009 for the Venetia Williams yard.
Mon Mome had run 10th in the 2008 National – the year before his big day at Aintree.
Just Two Back-to-Back Grand National Winners Since 1974
This theory is also supported with the fact we’ve only seen two horses since 1974 successfully defend their Grand National titles.
Red Rum in 1973 and 1974, while he also went onto win the race in 1977 and is the most successful horse in the race.
Then, more recently, Tiger Roll, managed to do the double in 2018 and 2019.
No horse has won the National more than three times.
Therefore, last year’s winner Noble Yeats will be the latest horse to try and win the race back-to-back.
He became the first 7 year-old to win since 1940 last year, so is no stranger to kicking a big Grand National trend into touch.
However, whereas Noble Yeats won with 10st 10lbs in 2022, he’s now got to try and win the race with 11st 11lbs – a massive 15lbs more!
Only 2 Of the Last 38 Winners Had Won Or Been Placed In The Grand National Before
We can also take this ‘past experience’ trend a bit further as only two of the last 38 winners had won or been placed in the National before.
Last year’s placed Grand National horses were as follows – with the first three home all back for more in 2023.
- 1st Noble Yeats
- 2nd Any Second Now
- 3rd Delta Work
- 4th Santini
Who Are The 2023 Grand National Runners That Will Be Running In The Race For The First Time?
Here are the potential 2023 Grand National runners that will be having their debut in the race (from the top 40 in the list). These are the entries that will have this big 86% stat on their side.
Could the 2023 Grand National winner be in this list?
- Corach Rambler
- Gaillard Du Mesnil
- Mr Incredible
- Galvin
- Vanillier
- Le Milos
- Ain’t That A Shame
- Capodanno
- Lifetime Ambition
- Quick Wave
- The Big Dog
- Carefully Selected
- Envoi Allen
- Fury Road
- Royale Pagaille
- The Big Breakaway
- Darasso
- Diol Ker
- Roi Mage
- The Shunter
- Velvet Elvis
- Eva’s Oskar
- Hill Sixteen
- Mister Coffey
- Recite A Prayer
- Sam Brown
- Cape Gentleman
- Cloudy Glen
- Gabbys Cross
- Gin On Lime
- Minella Trump
- A Wave Of Sea
- Battleoverdoyen
Last 14 Grand National Winners
- 2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2021 – Minella Times (11/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2020 – Cancelled (Covid)
- 2019 – Tiger Roll (4/1 fav) – Won the race before
- 2018 – Tiger Roll (10/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2017 – One For Arthur (14/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2016 – Rule The World (33/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2015 – Many Clouds (25/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2014 – Pineau De Re (25/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2013 – Auroras Encore (66/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2012 – Neptune Collonges (33/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2011 – Ballabriggs (14/1) – Debut Grand National run
- 2010 – Don’t Push It (10/1jfav) – Debut Grand National run
- 2009 – Mon Mome (100/1) – Finished 10th in 2008
- 2008 – Comply or Die (7/1 jfav) – Debut Grand National run
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