See below our 2023 Cheltenham Festival trends on day three to assist to shorten down the runners in each race. You can use the most useful Cheltenham stats to find the best profile of horses based on past winners. The Cheltenham trends often have a habit of repeat themselves – so, this is an excellent way to find winners on day three!
Best Cheltenham Offers For Day 3
Cheltenham Festival Trends on Day Three: Thursday 16th March 2023
Onto day three at the Cheltenham Festival – so over halfway through and we’ve another seven races to take in that are showcased with the Ryanair Chase and the Stayers’ Hurdle today.
The action gets going with the Turners’ Novices’ Chase (1:30) as the Gordon Elliott Cheltenham runner Mighty Potter will be looking to hold onto his unbeaten record over fences.
It’s the Pertemps Final Network Handicap Hurdle (2:10) next – a super-competitive contest as always but with 3 winners in the last 5 respect anything Gordon Elliott runs.
One of the main races is next – the Ryanair Chase (2:50) and Shishkin will be the warm order here. This Nicky Henderson runner bounced back to winning ways when upped in trip in the Ascot Chase last time. He’ll be looking to give the Seven Barrows handler his third win in the race.
Onto the Stayers’ Hurdle (3:30) – the Championship race of the day and it’s all set up to be a belter. A strong Irish presence with Blazing Khal, Teahupoo, Home By The Lee and Flooring Porter – who has won the last two runnings. Add in star mare – Marie’s Rock, then it’s ‘take your pick’ stuff.
The Plate Handicap Chase (4:10) is next – a race Coole Cody won last year and could be back for more. While the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (4:50) is the penultimate race and a chance to see some potential stars of the future.
Then, the curtain comes down on day three with the Kim Muir Handicap Chase (5:30) – a race for the amateur jockeys. Anything Jamie Codd is riding for trainer Gordon Elliott is respected – they’ve teamed up with 2 of the last 8 winners.
1.30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV
2022 Winner: BOB OLINGER 6/5
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachel Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Turners Novices’ Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- 9 of the 12 winners were Irish-trained
- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 12 winners
- 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Chase before
- 11 of the last 12 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
- 9 of the last 12 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
- 9 of the last 12 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
- 10 of the last 12 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
- 11 of the 12 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 9 of the last 12 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
- 3 outright winning favourites in the last 8 runnings
- 9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
- 11 of the last 12 winners French (4) or Irish (7) bred (6 of last 7 Irish bred)
- 11 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
- 5 of the last 12 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 6 of the last 12 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
- 7 year-olds have won 8 of last 12 renewals
- 7 of the last 8 winners rated 151+
- 3 of the last 12 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
- Gordon Elliott is 2 from 5
- JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 4 winners
NEGATIVES
- Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
- Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
- 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
- Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
- Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days
- The top-rated horse is just 1 from 12
- Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
- 4 winning favourites in 12 runnings (1 co)
2.10 – Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2022 Winner: THIRD WIND (25/1)
Trainer – Hughie Morison
Jockey – Tom O’Brien
UK/Irish: UK-trained
2023 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle Trends
POSITIVES
- Irish have won the last 6 of last 7 runnings
- Last 11 winners aged 8 or younger
- Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
- 9 of the last 15 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
- 11 of the last 22 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
- 11 of the last 16 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
- 10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-148
- 11 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m7f
- 9 of the last 11 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
- 6 of the last 10 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
- 7 of the last 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 22 winners won their last race
- 5 of the last 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 3 of the last 14 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
- Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
- 6 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie
- 6 of the last 7 winners Irish-trained
- 5 of the last 7 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
- Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners
- Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)
NEGATIVES
- Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
- Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
- Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
- Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 9 runnings)
- Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 48
- 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
- Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
- Only 2 winning favourites in last 17 years
- Just 1 winner in the last 40 aged 10+
2.40 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV
2022 Winner: ALLAHO (4/7 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Ryanair Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- 14 of the 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before
- 7 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season chasers
- All 15 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
- 11 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 12 of the last 15 had won or placed at the Festival before
- The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 29)
- The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
- 4 of the last 18 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
- 14 of last 18 winners were fav or 2nd fav
- 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 15 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 14 of the last 15 winners were rated 161+
- Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 5
- 9 of the last 11 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
- Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
- Respect first time headgear (3 from 11)
- 9 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- Last 9 winners were French-bred
- All winners ran 5 or less times that season
- 5 of the last 7 winners trained by Willie Mullins
- Last 11 winner aged 9 or younger
- The Irish have won 6 of the last 7 runnings
NEGATIVES
- Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
- No winner aged 11 or older
- Just 6 of the last 15 won last time out
- No winner was having their Festival debut
- Only 1 of the last 14 winners aged 10
- Just one winner rated 160 or below
3.30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2022 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (4/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Stayers’ Hurdle Trends
POSITIVES
- 13 of the last 18 won last time out
- 7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers
- 20 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 30 of the last 33 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
- 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 17 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
- 8 of the last 21 were French Bred
- 19 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
- 14 of the last 18 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
- Respect past winners of the race (Flooring Porter has won the last 2 runnings)
- 17 of the last 26 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
- 3 of the last 5 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
- 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
- 8 of the last 16 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
NEGATIVES
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
- A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
- Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
- Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 74
- Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 33 runningss
- Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 62)
- Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
- The Irish are have won the race just 5 times since 1995 (but have won the last 2)
- Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
4.10 – Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV
2022 Winner: COOLE CODY (22/1)
Trainer – Evan Williams
Jockey – Adam Wedge
UK/Irish: UK-trained
2023 Plate Handicap Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- 28 of the last 35 winners were officially rated 140 or less
- 11 of the last 14 winners carried under 11-0
- Look out for French-breds
- 14 of the last 18 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
- 11 of the last 19 winners had won a race in Feb or March
- 22 of the last 31 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
- 22 of the last 23 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- 9 of the last 13 winners had 9 or less chase runs
- 18 of the last 23 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
- 6 of the last 7 winners were novices or second season chasers
- 17 of the last 19 winners had raced that calendar year
- Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
- 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
- The last 4 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
- Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
- The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 25 runnings
- 17 of the last 22 winners returned at double-figure odds
NEGATIVES
- Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
- The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1982
- Only 3 of the last 19 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
- Only 2 of the last 19 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
- 4 winning favourites in the last 17 years
- Only 5 of last 28 won with 11st+
- Just 1 winner older than 9 in the last 11 years
4.50 – Jack De Bromhead Mares’ (Dawn Run) Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV
2022 Winner: LOVE ENVOI
Trainer – Harry Fry
Jockey – Jonathan Burke
UK/Irish: UK-trained
2023 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Trends
POSITIVES
- A new race (Just 7 renewals)
- All 7 winners aged 5 or 6
- 6 of the last 7 winners trained in Ireland
- Favourites have won 3 of the 7 runnings
- 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
- 4 of the 7 winners were French-bred
- 4 of the last 7 winners were top or 2nd top rated
- 5 of the last 7 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
- 5 of the last 7 past winners started their careers in France
- 5 of the last 7 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
- 4 of the 7 winners were unbeaten that season
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
- Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
- Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 7 runnings (just 4 runners)
- 4 of the 7 winners have been aged 5 years-old
NEGATIVES
- British trained runners are 1-from-49
- British bred mares are 0-from-23
- 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-20
- Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-10
- JP McManus owned are 0-from-8
5.30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2022 Winner: CHAMBARD
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Lucy Turner
UK/Irish: UK-trained
2023 Kim Muir Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
- 11 of the last 15 winners failed to win earlier that season
- 10 of the last 11 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
- 10 of the last 11 winners rated between 137-143
- 9 of the last 13 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
- 9 of the last 13 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
- 8 of the last 12 winners hadn’t win that season
- 10 of the last 14 winners ran in February
- 19 of the last 23 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
- Look for non-claiming amateur riders
- 8 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
- 11 of the last 14 winners came from the top 6 in the market
- Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 14 winners
- Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
- Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 11)
- 18 of the last 20 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
- Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
NEGATIVES
- Just 5 Irish winners in last 39 years (but have won 5 of the last 9)
- Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
- Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
- Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
- Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 102 since 2009
- Just 2 of the last 20 winners won last time out
- Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
- French breds are 1 from 74 since 2005
- Jus 2 of the last 18 winners aged 10+
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