Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew begins the new week with three stats-based selections at Ayr and Naas on Monday, April 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
AYR 2.15
PASTORAL WAY (system – David O’Meara, second-time out 2yos, April)
David O’Meara doesn’t bring many of his early season juveniles out again quickly but those having their second career outing in April have done extremely well, recording form figures of 22112111548 (5-11) for a profit of £22.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. PASTORAL WAY was beaten by eight lengths into fifth at Pontefract on his recent debut but that was a good effort against the pace/draw bias and he ran very green. He can reverse form with the runner-up from thar race, Harswell Dandy, and get off the mark this afternoon.
AYR 3.15
FIVER FRIDAY (system – The Gurkha, 1m1f-1m2f)
Progeny of The Gurkha have a solid record over trips of 1m1f-1m2f, landing 32 of their 212 starts (15.1% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £185.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 23.98, A/E = 1.33). FIVER FRIDAY ran second over course and distance last September and can run off the same mark after two outings over an inadequate 7f trip this term.
NAAS 4.50
FAIRY GODMOTHER (system – Night Of Thunder 2yos, early runs, turf)
Progeny of Night Of Thunder tend to come to hand early and backing the juveniles on their debut, second or third career start (turf only) would have found 64 winners from 330 bets (19.4%) for a profit of £57.05 to the usual £1 stake. The Aidan O’Brien-trained FAIRY GODMOTHER is a half-sister to Sketch, who scored by five lengths at odds of 15-2 when making his juvenile debut at Newbury last summer, and can get off the mark at the first time of asking.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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