Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to day one of the Aintree festival and Southwell for his four stats-based selections on Thursday, April 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
SOUTHWELL 1.55
MUTASAWI (system – David O’Meara, first-time cheekpieces, all-weather handicaps)
David O’Meara is ten from 48 when using first-time cheekpieces on his all-weather handicappers for a profit of £41.92 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.54, A/E = 1.81). Those who won on their latest start were two from (3-1 and 9-4) and I’m backing last-time-out Kempton maiden winner MUTASAWI to make it three from three.
SOUTHWELL 2.30
CHILLY BREEZE (system – January foals in early-season 2yo races)
January foals enjoy a maturity advantage over their younger counterparts in early-season (March to April) two-year-old races. Since 2016, they’ve won 32 of their 175 starts since 2016 (18.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £76.97 to a £1 level stake at SP. CHILLY BREEZE, the 20-1 outsider of four, could be worth chancing to making a winning debut in this 5f novice contest.
AINTREE 2.55
THUNDER ROCK (system – small-field preference)
THUNDER ROCK’s jumping tends to go to pot in big fields, but he has a fantastic record in single-digit line-ups, recording form figures of 12111111332121 (9-14). He returned to winning ways in a Listed contest at Kelso last time and, while his stamina for 3m1f in the mud remains open to question, today’s flat/sharp Mildmay course will suit and he’s worth chancing at a huge price in this Grade 1 contest.
SOUTHWELL 3.40
TIMETOBENICE (system – Time Test, 1m+, Tapeta)
TIMETOBENICE has been in good form on Kempton’s Polytrack since joining Marco Botti from David O’Meara, landing a 1m maiden before his12-1 second to Acturian (winner again since) over the same in trip in novice company. His breeding suggests that there could be more to come now that he runs on Tapeta for the first time and steps up to 1m3f. Progeny of his sire, Time Test, have 16 from 103 when running over 1m or further on Tapeta for a huge profit of £214.45 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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