See our Ascot horse racing tips and trends for the ITV racing on Saturday that sees FOUR LIVE contests at the Royal track – including the Cumberland Lodge Stakes and the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup.
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Ascot Horse Racing Tips & Trends For ITV Racing On Saturday 7th Oct 2023
The ITV cameras are also at Newmarket this Saturday for three races, but the Ascot coverage – with four LIVE contests – just edges it in terms of volume.
The action at the Berkshire track gets going with the Blue Eagle Rous Stakes (1:50pm) and with 14 of the last 18 winners aged 5 or younger this is an Ascot trend against the likely favourite in the race – Emaraaty Ana, who is now a 7 year-old.
We’ve also only seen 3 of the last 18 favourites win this Ascot opener, with the average winning SP in the last 10 years 8/1 – so there might be enough evidence to look away from the Kevin Ryan-trained market leader here – Korker, Nymphadora and Rage Of Bamby look fair alternatives.
Cumberland Lodge Trends Suggest Taking On Al Aasy
The Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2:25pm) is next up and we’ve another age trend here with 16 of the last 20 winners aged 3 or 4. This would be a negative for the fancied CD winner Al Aasy, who is 6, but on a plus this has been a better race for the favorites – with 11 of the last 20 going in.
2022 Hampton Court winner Claymore could be interesting if tuned-up after 135 days off by trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam, with Israr and Al Qareem the obvious calls away from the market leader Al Aasy.
Can The 2021 Winner Vadream Bounce Back?
Another Group Three, with the John Guest Bengough Stakes (3:00pm), where we see the 2021 winner Vadream back for more (watch below). This Charlie Fellowes runner has won twice this year, but recent form figures of 007 give him a James Bond look, so will need to bounce back if she’s to land the ‘money-penny’ again.
It’s also worth noting horses from stalls 5-8 here, with an 80% return in the last 10 runnings – this is a plus for Vadream, Juan Les Pins, Rumstar and Annaf.
18 Runners Line-Up For Challenge Cup
The final of the LIVE Ascot ITV races on Saturday is the competitive 18-runner Challenge Cup at 3:35pm. We’ve another past winner too, with the David O’Meara runner Escobar returning to defend his 2022 crown. He’s now a 9 year-old, but is rated a massive 13lbs lower than last year, so can’t be ruled out totally, despite his advancing years.
With 10 of the last 12 winners carrying 9-1 or more, make this your weight cut-off point, plus 92% of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or younger.
Several fit the bill, including the winning machine Quinault, while additional recent winners Popmaster and Barador are others to note.
But a chance is taken on the James Fanshawe runner Fresh.
Yes, he ran poorly in the race last year, when last of 17 as the hot favourite, but that clearly wasn’t his true running and is now 4lbs lower.
This 6 year-old has also been given a further squeak by the handicapper, who has dropped him a pound after a fair 6th (of 22) at the Curragh last time, and also won at the Royal track this time last year over this trip – off a mark just a pound lower.
So, to also help find the Saturday Ascot winners, we’ve also listed the best horse racing trends and stats for each of the LIVE ITV4 races at Ascot this weekend. Use these Ascot stats to find the best profiles of past winners and, in the process, put history in your corner.
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Ascot Horse Racing Tips and Trends On Saturday (ITV Racing)
1.50 – Blue Eagle Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4
- 18/18 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
- 18/18 – Won over 5f before
- 17/18 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/18 – Rated 101 or higher
- 14/18 – Aged 5 or younger
- 12/18 – Had won between 3-7 times before
- 12/18 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
- 10/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
- 9/18 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
- 9/18 – Unplaced last time out
- 7/18 – Irish bred
- 3/18 – Won last time out
- 3/18 – Winning favourites
- 8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
- The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
2.25 – Jim Barry Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4
- 19/20 – Finished fourth or better last time out
- 18/20 – Placed favourites
- 17/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
- 16/20 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
- 16/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 15/20 – Won at Listed or Group class before
- 15/20 – Had raced at the course before (7 won)
- 15/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
- 13/20 – Had won 4 or more times before
- 12/20 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
- 12/20 – Had 5 or more runs that season
- 11/20 – Favourites to win
- 10/20– Won last time out
- 6/20 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
- 1/20 – Filly or mare winners
- 12 of the last 14 winners came from draws 8 or lower
- The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
RELATED: Newmarket Horse Racing Tips & Trends For ITV Racing On Saturday 7th Oct 2023
3.00 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4
- 14/14 – Officially rated 100 or higher
- 14/14 – Won over 6f previously
- 12/14 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
- 11/14 – Won 4 or more times previously
- 10/14 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
- 9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 8/14 – Raced 6 or more times that season
- 5/14 – Won their previous race
- 5/14 – Favourites to win
- 3/14 – Returned a double-figure price
- 2/14 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
- 2 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 6
- 8 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
- Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 7 of the last 11 runnings (3 wins)
- Horses from stall 5, 6 and 7 have won 8 of the last 11 runnings
- Vadream won the race in 2021
3.35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4
- 19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 17/20 – Won over 7f previously
- 16/20 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
- 15/20 – Raced at Ascot previously
- 14/20 – Had raced within the last 30 days
- 12/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 11/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
- 10/20 – Raced 7 or more times that season
- 9/20 – Returned a double-figure price
- 8/20 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
- 7/20 – Raced at Ayr last time out
- 6/20 – Favourites that won
- 2/20 – Won their previous race
- 0/20 – Filly or mare winners
- 10 of the last 12 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or younger
- 2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 17
- 7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
- 5 of the last 14 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
- 4 of the last 14 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
- Escobar won the race in 2022
- The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 9/1
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