Use our Newbury and Market Rasen horse racing trends ahead of their big ITV Racing days this Saturday. At Newbury the Hackwood Stakes and Super Sprint are the features, while at Market Rasen it’s Summer Plate Chase Day.
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Newbury and Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends: ITV Racing Stats For Saturday 22nd July 2023
The ITV horse racing cameras are in action at Newbury and Market Rasen this Saturday to take in seven races across the two venues.
At Newbury, the Group Three Hackwood Stakes is one of the highlights – a race that’s seen 8 winning favourites in the last 19 years. The Berkshire track will also host the Weatherbys Super Sprint, which is a prize the Hannon yard love to target – winning the pot 7 times in the last 19.
Then at Market Rasen, it’s their Summer Plate Chase Day, with three races live on ITV and all eyes will be on the Peter Bowen-trained Francky Du Berlais, who has won the last two runnings of the Plate.
Newbury Horse Racing Trends: ITV Races, Saturday 22nd July 2023
1.50 – bet365 Stakes (Reg as the Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV
Course winner Al Aasy is the top-rated in the field and so will be popular for the William Haggas yard, plus there’s also been 44% winning favourites in the last 18 runnings. 3 and 4 year-olds have done well too, so Epic Poet, Phantom Flight, Dancing Magic and Oviedo tick this box. However, it’s also been a race Godolphin like to win.
The ‘boys in blue’ have won 5 of the last 13 and have a fair chance in Highland Avenue. This 5 year-old is the second top-rated in the line-up and was a fine 4th (or 16) in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and before that a close silver in the G3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom.
- 14/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
- 13/18 – Placed favourites
- 13/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
- 13/18 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
- 11/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 12/18 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
- 9/18 – Had run at the track before
- 8/18 – Winning favourites
- 7/18 – Had won a Group race before
- 6/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
- 5/18 – Winners from stall 1
- 3/18 – Won last time out
- 2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
- 2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- Godolphin have won 5 of the last 13 runnings
2.25 – Mettal UK Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV
Just the five past runnings, but it’s a race that we’ve still seen 80% of winners aged 5 or 6. With this in mind, Geremia, Zinc, Solent Gateway, Stay Well and Postileo are the ones with this age stat on their side. It’s also a contest that trainer Ian Williams likes to win – he’s taken 2 of the last 5 – and has The Grand Visir and Zinc White entered this year to maintain that record.
- Just five previous runnings
- 4/5 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 4/5 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
- 4/5 – Returned 17/2 or shorter
- 3/5 – Aged 6 years-old
- 2/5 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
- 2/5 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 3)
- 1/5 – Winning favourites
3.00 – bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV
With four wins in the last 8 runnings, jockey Jim Crowley has a fine record in this race – he rides Ehraz for trainer Richard Hannon. Horses aged 5 or younger have the best record too – so the older runners in the field – Garus and Commanche Falls have this to overcome. It’s also a race the betting tends to get right with 8 winning favourites in the last 19 and 63% of the winners coming from the top 3 in the market.
Frankie Dettori is also back in action here and he rides Lezoo, who will find this ease in grade a lot more to her liking after running in the Group One Commonwealth Cup last time at Royal Ascot (10th).
- 18/19 – Won over 6f before
- 16/19 – Aged 5 or younger
- 14/19 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
- 13/19 – Had won 4 or more times before
- 12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 12/19 – Placed favourites
- 8/19 – Had won a Group race before
- 8/19 – Winning favourites
- 7/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
- 6/19 – Won last time out
- 4/19 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
- 3/19 – Winners from stall 8
- 2/19 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of last 8)
- 2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
- 2/19 – Winners from stall 1
- 9 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
3.35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV
The Richard Hannon camp are one of the yards that have dominated in recent times – winning 7 of the last 19. They are mob-handed again too with The Camden Colt, Mr Baloo, Ziggy’s Phoenix, Liv My Life, Dappering, La Guarida and Jolly Sailor. Of that Hannon haul, The Camden Colt, with William Buick riding, and La Guarida look their main players.
However, on what we’ve seen so far from these 2 year-olds – the Coventry Stakes 6th Bobsleigh and Queen Mary silver Relief Rally set the clear standard.
- 17/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
- 16/19 – Had won over 5f before
- 15/19 – Won 1-2 times before
- 13/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 12/19 – Favourites placed in the top 4
- 12/19 – Won by a Feb or March foal
- 10/19 – Irish bred winners
- 9/19 – Won by a filly
- 9/19 – Won last time out
- 7/19 – Raced at Ascot last time out
- 7/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
- 5/19 – Winning favourites
- 3/19 – Winners from stall 1
- Richard Hannon has trained the winner in 2014, 2018, 2020 & 2021
- Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013, 2015 and 2017
RELATED: 2023 Irish Oaks Trends: Aidan O’Brien Looks For Seventh Big-Race Curragh Win
Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends: ITV Races, Saturday 22nd July 2023
2.05 – Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150) 2m4 1/2f ITV
- No previous runnings
2.40 – Unibet’s Zero Mission Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV
The weight stat over the years tells us that horses carrying 11st 5lbs or less have the best record with 88% of the last 16 winners ticking this box. This means the top 6 on the card – Everyonesgame, Clear The Runway, Too Friendly, Glorious Zoff, Earth Company and Dancila have this against them.
Respect claiming jockeys too, while 5 and 6 year-olds have the best record with a 71% strike-rate in the last 21 runnings. Castle Gandolfo was runner-up in the race last year and has to be respected again for the Fergal O’Brien yard of the same mark with the jockey’s claim.
Myristica (Pipe), Gavin and CD winner Belvedere Blast are others with a lot going for them.
- 18/21 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
- 16/21 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
- 15/21 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
- 14/21 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
- 11/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 7/21 – Had run at Market Rasen before
- 3/21 – Winning favourites
- 2/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
- 14 of the last 16 winners carried 11-5 or less
- 11 of the last 17 winners carried 11-0 or less
- 4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
- 9 of the last 17 winners retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- Castel Gandolfo was 2nd in the race in 2022
3.15 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5 1/2f ITV
The winner of this race for the last two years – Francky Du Berlais – has to be respected despite being another year older at 10. He lumped 12st to win last year and so the big weight is fine and it’s a race his trainer Peter Bowen has now won 8 times over the years. Bowen also has Courtland in the race, who was an easy 5 1/2 length winner at the track last time out.
Of the rest, the improving Born Famous gets in with a light weight and is respected, as is Chief Black Robe for Fergal O’Brien – a course winner that is looking for his fifth win on the spin.
- 20/21 – Had run within the last 3 months
- 19/21 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
- 18/21 – Aged 7 or older
- 15/21 – Had won 2 or more chases before
- 15/21 – Had run at Market Rasen before
- 14/21 – Carried 10-13 or less
- 13/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 11/21 – Won their previous race
- 8/21 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
- 7/21 – Trained by Peter Bowen (8 wins in total)
- 4/21 – Ran at Stratford last time out
- 3/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable
- 2/21 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 12)
- 2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
- 2/21 – Ridden by James Bowen (last 2 runnings)
- Francky Du Berlais won the race in 2021 and 2022
- Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
- 12 of the last 15 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
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