Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has six selections at Sandown, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Bellewstown on a typically busy Saturday (July 2nd). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
OSCULA (system – Galileo Gold, very recent outing)
The unbeaten Heredia will be a tough nut to crack but OSCULA is a viable each-way alternative. Progeny of her sire Galileo Gold do well when returned to the track very quickly (within a fortnight), landing 11 of their 59 starts for a profit of £65.75. She won well at Carlisle just ten days ago and rarely runs a bad race. She’s also a qualifier on the George Boughey last time out winners system discussed yesterday.
QUEEN OF DEAUVILLE (system – badly drawn in Queen Mary last time)
Fillies who have a bad draw in the Queen Mary (defined as stall 12 or lower in a race that often features 20+ runners) often make good bets next time out. Since the 2017 renewal, 18 of the 56 qualifiers won next time out (32.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £25.17. Only three of those ran in a nursery next time and they produced two winners (11-2 and 3-1) and a 7-1 runner-up, who was unlucky to go down narrowly to a well-handicapped rival (who ran off 84 and was subsequently rated 102). QUEEN OF DEAUVILLE scored at Carlisle on her debut before her 66-1 16th of 21 to Dramatised at Royal Ascot and is bred to appreciate the step up to 6f and slower going.
NIGHT OF THUNDER (system – Night Of Thunder fillies/mares, slow turf)
Female progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder do well on ground described as good to soft or softer, landing 25 of their 114 starts (22%) for a profit of £98.69. FLOWER OF THUNDER, a course and distance winner in the spring, will appreciate the return to this venue after last week’s 12-1 Newmarket third.
FOUTH TIME LUCKY (system – Richard Fahey, first-time cheekpieces, turf, recent run)
Since the start of 2010, Richard Fahey is 30 from 164 with his first-time cheekpieced turf runners who had raced withing the past four weeks. Backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £79.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. FOURTH TIME LUCKY has made the frame in six of his seven starts, finishing a 20-1 fifth of 17 in a York handicap in the other, and the headgear can help him to get off the mark.
HELVETIQUE (system – Ralph Beckett/Rob Hornby combination)
HELVETIQUE did this column a favour when scoring impressively in first-time blinkers at 5-1 at Windsor earlier this week and the three-year-old could be hard to beat under a 6lb penalty for that four-length romp. His running style is favoured at tonight’s venue and Rob Hornby is on board again. He has an 81 from 459 record (17.7% strike-rate) when riding for Beckett (expected winners = 65) for a profit of £65.75.
BUTO (system – Bellewstown hurdles, ran at same track last time, recent run)
Course experience is important at Bellewstown and hurdlers who were returning from a break of seven days or less, having run at the same venue last time, have a six from 27 record for a profit of £31.33. BUTO had a sighter on the Flat here 48 hours ago and, though a 20-race maiden, can reward each-way support. He’s placed at 18-1 and 13-2 on his last two runs over hurdles.
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