Arsenal’s 5-0 win over Burnley saw the Gunners keep their 10th Premier League clean sheet of the season – and the underlying xG metrics show why they are so strong defensively.
The Gunners have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League this season, and that is largely due to how Mikel Arteta structures his side. Their ability to suffocate opponents makes the team seem much more solid, particularly in big matches.
The addition of Declan Rice was bound to make Arsenal sturdier and harder to beat, and that has been shown when analysing the underlying metrics.
Arsenal lead the Premier League in xGA
Arsenal have allowed the fewest Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the league, and by quite a margin too. After 25 games, according to FBref, the Gunners have allowed 18.0 xGA, compared to Manchester City’s 23.3 and Liverpool’s 31.0.
However, Arsenal have actually conceded 22 — four more than they are expected to have based on the chances they have allowed. This suggests that, despite their strong numbers, they should have conceded even fewer than they have.
Arsenal have conceded at least 4.41 fewer xG than any other team in the Premier League this season. 🧱
Are Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba the Premier League's best CB pairing? 💭 https://t.co/gbn8TW1OBc
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 19, 2024
This underperformance can be attributed to a number of factors, including goalkeeping performance, mistakes, and luck. You can see how much Liverpool are overperforming their xGA (24 goals conceded, 31 xGA), and this is largely down to having an elite shot-stopper in Alisson.
Arsenal don’t quite have that calibre of goalkeeper in David Raya, although the Spaniard has proven plenty of doubters wrong following a rocky start in North London.
Earlier this season, we analysed Raya’s role at Arsenal and how Arteta’s decision to replace Aaron Ramsdale has been proven right, despite the noise and uncertainty at the time.
Are Saliba and Gabriel the Premier League’s best centre-back pairing?
While Arsenal’s resilient defensive numbers are largely down to the structure of the team, it certainly helps when you have the pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes in the heart of defence.
The pair have started all but one of Arsenal’s last 22 Premier League games, since Gabriel was reimplemented into the starting lineup after speculation arose of a big-money move to Saudi Arabia.
Given the Brazilian’s performances this season, it’s no wonder Arsenal and Arteta had no desire to cash in on him.
His partnership with Saliba — who, at 22, is already discussed as one of the best centre backs in world football — is key to snuffing out any opposition danger, both in transition and in and around the box.
Gabriel’s front-footed, aggressive nature as a defender seems to perfectly compliment the calmness and assuredness that Saliba exudes.
Both even provide a threat from set-pieces in the opposition box, as demonstrated in the 6-0 demolishing of West Ham when both found the net.
Considering the consistency of the pairing and their performances over the last two seasons, it’s hard to argue against this being the Premier League’s best centre-back partnership.
Arsenal Defence The Best In The Premier League
Neutral fans might think Arsenal are not as exciting to watch as they were last season, maybe even boring. But Arteta’s clearly focused on shoring up the defence in order to give his side a better chance in the important games.
During the league season, a team aims to earn points against all kinds of opponents. Arsenal’s recent defensive performance is promising for their upcoming matches against tough teams like Man City, Tottenham, Brighton, and Manchester United, as well as possible Champions League games.
In December at Anfield, Arsenal allowed less than one xG, a significant improvement from their past two visits, where they conceded over eight xG.
In matches against Liverpool and Man City at the Emirates, they faced less than one xG combined. Notably, Man City had just four shots — the fewest shots a Pep Guardiola team has had in over 13 years.
Before the Liverpool game, Arsenal may have struggled with their attacking prowess against top teams. However, in crucial games, managing to avoid defeat becomes more important.
This strategic approach could be especially beneficial in Europe, with knockout competitions rewarding teams who can avoid defeat.
Whether this strategy will see them lift major silverware at the end of the season remains to be seen. The best UK betting sites currently price the Gunners as third favourites for both the Premier League and Champions League.
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