When Arsenal Can Realistically Win The Premier League

Premier League xG Table
Premier League xG Table

13 and counting. That is the ground Arsenal still have to cover in this marathon of a season, prolonged by a winter World Cup, if they are remain title contenders come the end of May. Although it remains a tall order to keep Manchester City at arm’s length, it is worth looking at both title rivals’ remaining fixtures to see when Arsenal can realistically win the Premier League.

A midweek masterclass from the league leaders restored a five point cushion at the mountaintop, sweeping aside Everton with a four goal thumping to extend their winning run to three games.

This recent streak has settled the Arsenal title sceptics following a sour period throughout February, in which they fell to defeat twice and dropped points at home to Brentford in a frustrating 1-1 stalemate.

However, last month highlighted how quickly a seemingly iron-clad lead at the top, which saw the Gunners eight points clear at one stage, can start to rupture. The defeat against Manchester City felt like a significant shift in momentum as we head towards the tail end of the season, but the unlikeliest of draws against Nottingham Forest allowed Arsenal to reclaim top spot and swing fate back in their direction.

With 13 games left to play, plus other domestic and European fixtures sandwiched in between, is is worth putting Arsenal’s run-in under the microscope to see if, and when, they could lift a first Premier League trophy in 20 years.

When Arsenal Can Realistically Win The Premier League

Remaining Fixtures

  • 4th March 2023 – Arsenal v Bournemouth
  • 11th Match2023 – Fulham v Arsenal
  • 18th March 2023 – Arsenal v Crystal Palace
  • 1st April 2023 – Arsenal v Leeds United
  • 8th April 2023 – Liverpool v Arsenal
  • 15th April 2023 – West Ham United v Arsenal
  • 22nd April 2023 – Arsenal v Southampton
  • 26th April 2023 – Manchester City v Arsenal
  • 29th April 2023 – Arsenal v Chelsea
  • 6th May 2023 – Newcastle United v Arsenal
  • 13th May 2023 – Arsenal v Brighton
  • 20th May 2023 – Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
  • 28th May 2023 – Arsenal v Wolverhampton

ALSO SEE: Premier League Title Race: Comparing The Remaining Fixture List For Manchester City And Arsenal


The first eventuality is perhaps the simplest to decipher – if Arsenal win all 13 of their remaining games, they could be crowned champions at St James’ Park on the 6th May, providing they can find a way to beat Manchester City at the end of April.

Should they lose against their current title rivals, the gap will be cut down to just two points, which could lead to a dramatic final day scenario similar to the one witnessed last season between City and Liverpool.

A draw would keep things as they are at five points, providing City claim three points in all of their games, so a victory at Nottingham Forest in their penultimate fixture would be enough to take the trophy back to the Emirates for a parade on the final day.

Manchester City are also still due to play Liverpool and Chelsea at the Etihad, as well as tough trips on the road against Brighton and Brentford, so twists and turns along the way are to be expected.

As for Arsenal, they simply can not afford to drop points in the run-in to their game at the Etihad with the Citizens. They will take comfort in the fact that they have four home games between then, and the Emirates has finally become a fortress this season with just one defeat in North London.

 

 

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