Tottenham Are The Luckiest Premier League Side According To “Luck Score” Table

Tottenham Hotspur are leading the Premier League luck score table after 12 games, meaning they are the luckiest team in the top flight, with Chelsea currently bottom of the pile. 

Spurs Leading Premier League Luck Score Table

Despite losing their last two Premier League games, Tottenham have had a strong start to the new season, picking up valuable wins over Liverpool and Manchester United along the way.

And according to the “luck score” table, Spurs have had plenty of fortune. See the X post (tweet) below with an explanation of how the table works.

Current ‘luck scores’ for #PremierLeague, the excess by which actual points exceeds expected points, assuming the latter is a better measure of longer term form. Those nearer the top should expect to mean regress south in the actual points table. Tottenham have already started. pic.twitter.com/kmF5opORjT

— Joseph Buchdahl (@12Xpert) November 12, 2023

Full Premier League Luck Score Table

“The excess by which actual points exceeds expected points, assuming the latter is a better measure of longer term form. Those nearer the top should expect to mean regress south in the actual points table.”

1. Tottenham: 6.59
2. Manchester United: 4.68
3. Arsenal: 4.35
4. Aston Villa: 2.22
5. Manchester City: 2.19
6. West Ham: 1.78
7. Wolves: 1.74
8. Liverpool: 1.24
9. Nottingham Forest: 1.04
10. Fulham: 0.83
11. Brighton: 0.49
12. Crystal Palace: 0.46
13. Sheffield United: -1.03
14. Bournemouth: -143
15. Brentford: -2.58
16. Luton Town: -3.34
17. Newcastle United: -3.73
18. Burnley: -4.36
19. Everton: -4.63
20. Chelsea: -6.1

With Ange Postecoglou‘s side sitting top of the luck score table, they have already started to drop down the actual table, with two losses in their last two games, suggesting they may be running out of fortune.

Meanwhile at the opposite end of the table, Everton have been fairly unlucky according to figures, and in recent weeks have started to slowly move back up, picking up three wins in their last five games.

Premier League ACTUAL Table

1. Manchester City – 27pts
2. Arsenal – 27pts
3. Tottenham – 26pts
4. Liverpool – 24pts
5. Aston Villa – 22pts
6. Manchester United – 21pts
7. Newcastle United – 20pts
8. Brighton – 18pts
9. Brentford – 16pts
10. Chelsea – 15pts
11. Wolves – 15pts
12. Crystal Palace – 15pts
13. West Ham United – 14pts
14. Everton – 14pts
15. Nottingham Forest – 13pts
16. Fulham – 12pts
17. Bournemouth – 12pts
18. Luton Town – 9pts
19. Burnley – 4pts
20. Sheffield United – 4pts