Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has five selections at Nottingham, Chepstow, Fakenham and Kempton on a busy Wednesday (October 26th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NOTTINGHAM 1.00
DAYSOFOURLIVES (system – Churchill progeny, second time out)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Churchill have a poor record on their debuts, scoring just twice from 108 starts for a loss of £98.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those that run well, finishing in the top four, often make good bets next time, landing eight of their 27 starts for a profit of £8.05, improving to eight from 22 in Class 4 or lower company (+£13.05). DAYSOFOURLIVES ran green when a modest fourth of nine at Leicester earlier this month but still fared best of those to come from off the pace and the Marco Botti yard is in fine form.
NOTTINGHAM 1.35
HARSWELL DUKE (system – Roger Fell, Class 4 or 5 turf handicaps, very recent run)
Roger Fell has a 41 from 159 record (25.8% strike-rate) in Class 4 or 5 handicaps on turf with runners who had raced within the past seven days and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £76.03 to a £1 level stake at SP. HARSWELL DUKE, a winner at Leicester 48 hours ago, is taken to complete an October handicap.
FAKENHAM 4.10
RUNWITHTHETIDE (system – Dan Skelton, first-time cheekpieces, 5th or worse last time out)
Like his old boss Paul Nicholls, trainer Dan Skelton has a solid record when using first-time cheekpieces. The value call is to only back the ones who finished out of the frame (fifth or worse) on their latest outing, with 16 of the 71 qualifiers proving successful for a profit of £41.13. RUNWITHTHETIDE was sent off as the 3-1 favourite on his comeback at Carlisle 13 days ago but that run was probably needed and he’s worth another chance.
CHEPSTOW 5.30
IBIZA ROCKS (system – Rail Link, national hunt flat races)
Progeny of the sire Rail Link are 15 from 99 when running in bumpers for a profit of £54.04. Several of those winners came at the first time of asking and IBIZA ROCKS could be worth a very small and speculative interest at likely huge odds on her debut.
KEMPTON 8.30
WORLD WITHOUT LOVE (system – Charlie & Mark Johnston, blinkered first time on previous start)
The Charlie & Mark Johnston yard has a poor record with first-time blinkered runners, scoring with just five of the 143 qualifiers since 2015 for a loss of £121.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners, based on their prices, was in excess of 15.
However, those same horses often do well at the next time of asking, regardless of whether the blinkers were retained, replaced with other headgear, or the headgear was left off completely.
Sixteen of the 113 bets landed to give a profit of £115.63. WORLD WITHOUT LOVE was beaten by more than 16 lengths into sixth place when 15-8 favourite at Wolverhampton last time but did too much too soon in the first-time blinkers and may do better now going without the headgear.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 26 October 2022
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers must sign up on mobile.
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- A maximum of 3 x £10 free bets credited when a qualifying bet on selected events is settled.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 (3/10) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
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Related
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