Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Worcester, Thirsk and Epsom for his three stats-based based selections on Wednesday, July 5th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WORCESTER 3.53
FOUNTAINSPINKLADY (system – Anthony Honeyball, first-time tongue-tie, bumpers)
Anthony Honeyball is 14 from 68 (20.6% strike-rate) with his first-time tongue-tied runners in National Hunt Flat races and backing them all would have returned a profit of £43.84 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who started as favourite were seven from 12 for a profit of £5.34. Point winner FOUNTAINSPINKLADY wasn’t beaten far when fifth in a ‘point-to-point’ bumper at Stratford last month and is taken to make a winning stable debut.
THIRSK 4.15
ONSLOW GARDENS (system – Richard Hannon, second run since gelded, top six finish last time out)
Since the beginning of 2018, Richard Hannon is 25 from 141 (17.7%) with runners having their second start since gelded for a profit of £28.69 to a £1 level stake at SP, with those who finish in the top six last time out winning 23 from 100 for a profit of £58.20. The expected number of winners, based on their prices, was only 13.32. ONSLOW GARDENS faded into a 4-1 fifth after making the running in a 7f novice contest at Doncaster on his belated reappearance last month but that outing was no doubt needed after a 252-day break and he could be worth another chance.
EPSOM 6.50
COMPTON BAY (system – New Bay 2yos, 7f+)
Juvenile progeny of the sire New Bay have a cracking record over 7f or further on turf, landing 32 of their 136 starts (23.5%) for a profit of £40.84 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 18.3). The only one trained by Eve Johnson Houghton was Jumby, a 5-1 debut winner before going on to score in Group 2 company, and perhaps COMPTON BAY can follow suit.
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