Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been in good form this month and has four stats-based picks at Hereford and Kempton on Wednesday, February 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
HEREFORD 3.35
MASKED MATGIL (system – Tom Lacey, handicap debutants)
In-form Tom Lacey has a 21 from 93 record with his handicap debutants and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £66.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s two from two on this angle so far this month (9-2 and 9-4) and perhaps MASKED MATGIL can make it three from three.
KEMPTON 5.00
ALASKAN (system – poorly drawn in 6f-1m Southwell handicap last time out)
It’s been difficult to win from stall 10 or higher in handicaps over 6f-1m at Southwell this winter and those high-drawn runners often make good bets at the next time of asking. In 6f handicaps at Southwell the score is 0-50 since November 1st, suggesting that ALASKAN was up against it from stall 11 of 11 when making his handicap debut at the Nottinghamshire venue earlier this month. The Charles Hills-trained three-year-old was backed into 6-4 favouritism despite his draw, keeping on into second place just over one length behind the well-drawn winner (first four drawn 3, 11, 4 and 2 of 11). He can go one better this evening.
KEMPTON 7.30
UZINCSO (system – John Butler, first-time tongue-tie, all-weather)
John Butler is seven from 24 with all-weather runners in a first-time tongue-tie and backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £146.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. UZINCSO was a little underwhelming over course and distance last time, finishing a two-length sixth of 13 when the 5-2 favourite, but the headgear could make the difference tonight.
KEMPTON 8.30
SEXY REXY (system – Marco Botti, all-weather handicappers, fresh)
Marco Botti has a good record in all-weather handicaps with runners returning from a break of at last 40 days, scoring with 49 of the 287 qualifiers since the spring of 2016 (17.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £100.91 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 34.46). In the same period, those aged three or four only were 45 from 230 (19.6%) for a profit of £120.91. SEXY REXY never got involved when a 14-1 fifth at Wolverhampton on her handicap debut early last month but the short break, longer trip and first-time cheekpieces could bring about some improvement in this 1m4f contest.
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