Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has five stats-based selections on Tuesday, June 18th, including a pair at huge prices at Royal Ascot. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
STRATFORD 3.55
FOREVER WILLIAM (system – Dan Skelton stable switchers in handicap hurdles)
Dan Skelton does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially in handicap hurdles. He’s won with 42 of the 143 qualifiers (29.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £16.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran in a hurdle race last time were 34 from 100 for a profit of £35.38 and FOREVER WILLIAM qualifies as a bet for me on this angle. He’s been picked up cheaply since disappointing at Uttoxeter for Alan King last month and is likely to be suited by this sharp track.
CATTERICK 4.50
FRONT GUNNER (system – Calyx)
Simply backing all progeny of the sire Calyx, regardless of age or racing surface, would have found 47 winners from 244 bets (19.3%) for a profit of £100.61 to a £1 level stake at SP. FRONT GUNNER, who had little chance from his poor high draw when mid-division in a 5f Class 3 handicap at York last time and the drop to Class 4 level, combined with the step up to 7f, could bring about improvement.
ASCOT 5.05
THE GRAND VISIR (system – Ascot Stakes, 7yo+)
Backing horses aged seven or older has been a profitable angle in the past ten renewals of the 2m4f Ascot Stakes, producing seven winners from 51 bets and a profit of £72.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.57, A/E = 2.72). Today’s six qualifiers include veteran course expert THE GRAND VISIR, whose record here reads 123823 (1-6). The win came in this race in 2019 and he was only beaten by five lengths when a 40-1 eighth of 19 in last year’s renewal.
STRATFORD 5.50
CLIMATE PRECEDENT (system – Dan Skelton stable switchers in handicap hurdles)
CLIMATE PRECEDENT qualifies on the same Dan Skelton switchers angle as Forever William (see 3.55 for stats) and looks especially interesting having also had a wind operation since leaving the James Owen yard.
ASCOT 6.15
DRAWN TO DREAM (system – Jamie Osborne, handicap debut)
Jamie Osborne has a solid record with handicap debutants, scoring with 25 of his 183 (13.7%) such runners since the beginning of 2017 for a huge profit of £139.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. Ten Commitments, the most recent qualifier, finished second at 20-1 at Salisbury earlier this month (traded at 2.02 in running) and DRAWN TO DREAM might be worth a speculative each-way interest on her British/stable debut.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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