Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the afternoon Flat meetings Hamilton and Brighton for three stats-based based selections on Tuesday, July 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
HAMILTON 2.15
SOVERAINE (system – Hamilton, 6f, stalls 1, 2 and 3)
Low draws have a fine recent record in 6f races at Hamilton and, since the beginning of 2022, had we simply bet stalls 1, 2 and 3 blind, regardless of the size of the field, we would have won 30 of our 144 bets and made a very healthy profit of £246.68 to a £1 level stake at SP. Charlie Johnston’s SOVERAINE (stall 1 of 6), beaten by a neck at Pontefract on her debut, ran a shocker on soft ground at Brighton next time, but can get off the mark on this more conventional track.
BRIGHTON 2.57
NATIVE MELODY (system – Gay Kelleway, first-time visor)
Three of the five runners in this 1m2f Class 6 handicap are wearing headgear for the first time and one of them – Gay Kelleway’s NATIVE MELODY – will be carrying my cash. In the past 15 years her trainer is 12 from 77 (15,6%) with this form of headgear for a profit of £80.39 to a £1 level stake at SP. In Class 6 races only, the score is ten from 42 (23.8%) for a profit of £92.39. One of Native Melody’s best previous efforts – an 80-1 fourth at Southwell in May – came in first-time cheekpieces and the change of headgear could help her to break her duck at the eighth attempt.
BRIGHTON 3.27
SUN FESTIVAL (system – Newcastle (AW), round-course pacesetters next time out)
It remains difficult to win from the front on the round course (1m2f+) at Newcastle (AW) and any horse who finishes in the top four under a forcing ride can be supported next time. This angle has produced 57 winners from 278 bets (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £96.18 to a £1 level stake at SP. SUN FESTIVAL was only third when 2-1 favourite for a Newcastle handicap last time but made the running and will be happier back at Brighton where he won on his penultimate start.
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