Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew was among the winners on Monday and has three stats-based picks at Catterick and Southwell on Tuesday, February 27th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CATTERICK 3.20
TREATY BOY (system – Catterick chase winners returning to Catterick)
Sharp/undulating Catterick is a specialists’ tracks and chase winners at the Yorkshire venue who return for a similar race next time have a useful record, landing 18 of their 46 starts since 2010 for a profit of £18.76 to the usual £1 stake. TREATY BOY scored comfortably over course and distance for Rebecca Menzies earlier this month and can double up on his debut for Stuart Coltherd.
CATTERICK 3.50
WOLFBURG (system – Sandy Thomson, second start over hurdles, November to February)
As discussed prior to the win of I Am Max at Ayr yesterday, Sandy Thomson has a great record in the depths of winters (November to February). His hurdles having their second career start in this period are 12 from 54 (22.2%) for a profit of £76.00 to a £1 level stake at SP and WOLFBURG, who shaped well when fourth at Kelso on his hurdles bow in late December, can get off the mark.
SOUTHWELL 4.28
VALENTINKA (system – Marco Botti, all-weather handicappers, fresh)
Since the spring of 2016, Marco Botti has a 150 from 1103 record (13.6% strike-rate) with his all-weather handicappers. We’d have made a loss of £85.11 by backing them blind at SP (+£85.64 at Betfair SP after 2% commission) but only backing those who were running ‘fresh’ (after a break of at least 40 day) would have found 56 winners from 325 bets (17.2%) for a profit of £117.11 at SP (+£195.02 at Betfair SP). VALENTINKA’s two previous wins came after break of 82 and 45 days and she’s been freshened up since beating only one home at Kempton in early December.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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