Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has unearthed some interesting statistical angles for his three bets at Ayr and Newcastle on Tuesday, February 14th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
AYR 3.45
NIGHTS IN VENICE (system – Midnight Legend chasers, February to June)
Progeny of the sire Midnight Legend tend to thrive as spring approaches and backing all the chasers from February to June would have returned a profit of £249.82 from a sample of 1327 bets. NIGHTS IN VENICE is a nine-race maiden but this will be his first handicap outing in the peak Midnight Legend period and he looks worth an interest at a double-figure price.
NEWCASTLE 5.30
IRON SHERIFF (system – poorly drawn in 6f-1m Southwell handicap last time out)
This winter (since the beginning of November) it’s been very difficult to win a Southwell handicap over 6f-1m from a double-figure draw, with those berthed in stall 10 or higher scoring just three times from 152 runners for a loss of £139.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.59). Those who were badly drawn show a profit if backed blind on their next outing, with last night’s 28-1 Wolverhampton scorer Kingwell the latest qualifier. IRON SHERIFF beat only one home from stall 10 when 16-1 for a 1m Southwell handicap last time and might be able to reward each-way support at a nice price (16-1 at the time of writing). He’s 0-16 on the all-weather but has finished in the frame in five of his last six visits to Newcastle. ST ANDREW’s CASTLE qualifies on the same angle and could be worth a saver.
NEWCASTLE 6.00
SEAHRENA (system – Archie Watson newcomers, all-weather)
Archie Watson has a 45 from 180 record (25% strike-rate) with newcomers on the all-weather and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £21.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. In February only, his record is eight from 12 for a profit of £14.90. SEAHRENA could be worth chancing on her first visit to a racecourse.
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