Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up with the return of British jumps racing on Tuesday (December 20th) and Andrew has five stats-based selections. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LUDLOW 1.20
VOLCANO (system – Ludlow chases, ran in a Ludlow chase last-time out)
Ludlow’s fences used to be easy to jump but they provide a much sterner test nowadays, making recent course form of great value. Since the spring of 2016, simply backing chasers at Ludlow, who also ran over fences here on their latest outing, would have found 38 winners from 171 bets (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £55.48 to a £1 level stake at SP. VOLCANO is best known as a Warwick expert but he has won at Ludlow, and he finished a solid third here on his latest outing. He should go well again.
SOUTHWELL 1.43
SHARP DISTINCTION (system – Tamayuz, younger progeny on Tapeta)
Younger progeny of the sire Tamayuz (aged two to four) have a solid record on Tapeta and SHARP DISTINCTION, though an eight-race maiden, could appreciate the switch from Polytrack. All five of his all-weather runs have taken place at Kempton, including a narrow second when 10-1 for a two-mile handicap on his most recent outing.
SOUTHWELL 3.20
TOO MUCH (system – James Horton runners, excluding racecourse debut)
Rookie trainer James Horton has had a fantastic first year and had we bet all his runners, apart from the ones making their racecourse debuts, we’d have won 18 of our 83 bets (21.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £28.71 to a £1 level stake at SP. TOO MUCH displayed obvious signs of inexperience when a 9-1 fourth of 14 over course and distance when making his debut a fortnight ago and should know more today.
NEWCASTLE 3.45
BEGGERMANS ROAD (system – Karl Burke, second-time out 3yos on the all-weather)
BEGGARMANS ROAD ran a race full of promise on debut at Wolverhampton 15 days ago, where he kept on into a 16-1 fourth of 12 after a slow start. He fared best of those to come from off the pace and Karl Burke has a 12 from 54 record with three-year-olds on the all-weather who were having their second career outing. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £96.75 to a £1 level stake at SP an the son of Elzaam can get off the mark this afternoon.
NEWCASTLE 4.15
BEATTIE IS BACK (system – cold snap, very recent run)
BEATTIE IS BACK was only sixth in a 7f 0-75 handicap at Wolverhampton on November 26th but that race is working out exceptionally well, with the third, fourth and sixth (Beattie Is Back) winning since. The winner and runner-up have not raced subsequently but the seventh also gave the form a boost when second at 12-1 on his next outing. Beattie Is Back won comfortably over the same trip and track in 0-70 company on his next outing, just seven days ago, and a very recent outing has been the key to finding winners of all-weather handicaps in the recent cold spell. His full record at this specialist 7f trip now reads 3161 (2-4), with the other victory coming at Newcastle. He’s run faster than unbeaten odds-on favourite BREWING and can defy a 6lb penalty.
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