Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Thursday Picks – March 9th

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.

Andrew has four stats-based selections over the sticks at Carlisle, Wincanton and Thurles on Thursday, March 9th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

WINCANTON 2.40

HATOS (systems  – Anthony Honeyball, first-run in a handicap hurdle)

Anthony Honeyball runners having their first crack at a handicap hurdle are 25 from 103 for a very healthy profit of £77.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. HATOS, a faller in handicap chase company at Ffos Las om his most recent outing, will appreciate the return to hurdles and can strike for his in-form yard.

CARLISLE 2.50

MISTER BELLS (system – Micky Hammond/Emma Smith-Chaston trainer/jockey combination)

Emma Smith-Chaston has a good record when riding for boss Micky Hammond, scoring on 35 of her 209 mounts (16.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £64.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 22.38). In Class 4 or lower company only, the profit improves to £84.35 (34 winners from 185 bets). MISTER BELLS didn’t see out his race over three miles at Ayr last time but holds each-way claims now dropping back in trip.

THURLES 3.05

THE GUNNER YEATS (system – Willie Mullins, no headgear, wore first-time out on previous start)

Willie Mullins, by his own high standards, has a modest strike-rate when fitting one of his runners with a first-time hood. Those same horses often run well at the next time of asking if the headgear is removed, landing ten of their 29 starts for a profit of £25.74 to a £1 level stake at SP. THE GUNNER YEATS could only finish an 18-length third of 13 when wearing the headgear on his Rules debut in a Navan bumper last month and might do better today.

WINCANTON 4.25

TEDWIN HILLS (system – Emma Lavelle, handicap hurdle debut, top-two finish last time out)

Emma Lavelle has a solid record with handicap hurdle debutants who came into the race in good form (finishing first or second in their prep race). She’s won with 17 of the 67 qualifiers (25.4% strike-rate) for a very useful profit of £51.00. Her most recent qualifier, Porter In The Park, was an 11-2 winner at Huntingdon in late January and perhaps TEDWIN HILLS, runner-up over 1m7f here last time, can follow suit.

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Related

• There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
• View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.