Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads to the meeting at Newmarket, Dundalk and Ascot for his four recommended bets/trades on Friday, July 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 1.50
It’s difficult to win the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot from a low draw (stalls 1 to 9) and fancied runners (SP of 12-1 or shorter) who were drawn in single-figure stalls in that competitive 1m4f contest often make good bets on their next start, regardless of where they finished at Ascot. Since 2013, the score is six winners from 30 bets (+£8.13), with five of the beaten horses also finishing second. Aidan O’Brien’s CHANTILLY was only eighth of 19 when a 6-1 shot for the King George but was drawn in stall 7 (the winner and runner-up came from stalls 18 and 19) and to go down by just four lengths was a good effort, even though he took a wider route on the better ground than some of the low-drawn horses. The cut back to 1m2f on slower ground will suit – he was a fine third to King’s Gambit in the London Gold Cup at Newbury on his latest run over this trip – and he rates a buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market with Ryan Moore doing the steering.
Recommendation: Back CHANTILLY in Newmarket 1.50
DUNDALK 2.32
At the time of writing DE JANEIRO was a general 9-2 chance for this 7f three-year-old handicap, but the visor is on for his handicap debut and Dermot Weld’s runners are usually worth avoiding when fitted with first-time headgear. Weld is just 12 from 160 with first-time visored runners since the spring of 2016 for a loss of 68.31 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 20.39, A/E = 0.59), including 0-13 on the all-weather. It’s a similar story with first-time blinkers, with a haul of just ten from 141 in the same period for a loss of £102.78. Livio Milo (first-time blinkers) attracted support in the 7.25 at Leopardstown but could only finish tenth and a sell of Da Janeiro in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market could pay dividends.
Recommendation: Oppose DE JANEIRO in Dundalk 2.32
NEWMARKET 3.00
BAGUE D’OR was switched sharply right from his wide draw on leaving the stalls when my fancy for the 1m4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, losing ground in the process and ending up in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail where it was clearly slower. James Ferguson’s six-year-old stayed in to finish in mid-division, a useful effort in the circumstances, and will be happier back up in trip to 1m6f and back at his beloved Newmarket. His record here reads 1211 (3-4), including a two from two haul on then July Course and he should get a good pace to chase. Faster ground will suit but it should be no worse than good come post time. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price (5-1 with Spreadex at the time of writing).
Recommendation: Back BAGUE D’OR in Newmarket 3.00
ASCOT 3.25
The William Haggas-trained GLOBAL ASSET has proved very consistent since gelded, scoring on Newmarket’s July course either side of narrow seconds at Newbury and Nottingham, latterly by one-length when the 15-8 favourite. The cheekpieces go on today – a positive angle with the yard’s runners who were beaten favourites last time out. Had we backed all 94 qualifiers we’d have won 28 of our bets and made a profit of £25.70 to the usual level stake at SP (expected winners = 20.41, A/E = 1.37). Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back GLOBAL ASSET in Ascot 3.25
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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