Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has five selections for the horse racing action at Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and the Curragh on Saturday (September 24th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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CHESTER 2.15
CLIFFCAKE (system – Chester handicaps of 5f-1m2f, stalls 2, 3 & 4)
Chester typically favours low-drawn runners, especially when the ground rides good or faster, but those drawn in stall 1 tend to get over-bet. The best punting angle in recent years had been to side with those drawn in stalls 2, 3 or 4. Had we done so in handicaps over 5f-1m2f, since the start of 2016, we’d have won 136 of our 818 bets (16.6% strike-rate) and made a profit of £53.62 to a £1 level stake at SP.
That’s only 6.5% on turnover but taking the best price the evening before racing would have boosted that to 26.5% (+£214.54). Only siding with those who had raced within the past six weeks would also increase the profitability of this system. There are plenty of qualifiers today and I’m especially interested in CLIFFCAKE, who got into a fierce battle for the early lead when fourth of seven in a 7f Class 3 handicap at Doncaster last time.
The winner and runner-up came from off the pace and the other pacesetter, third-placed Point Lynas, stepped up in grade to scored at odds of 15-2 at Redcar next time before passing the post first (demoted to second) when 25-1 at York. The 79-day break is of no concern as he goes well when fresh and he could take some catching here.
HAYDOCK 3.15
WOWZERS (system – Clive Cox 3yo handicappers, Class 2-4, ran 6th or worse last time out)
It was a strange move to up the keen-going WOWZERS to 7f at Newmarket last time and even stranger to see him go off at just 4-1. He pulled his chance away, as he usually does in small fields, and finished last of six.
His two runs in fields of ten or more runners have produced a 16-1 fourth of 16 at Nottingham and 18-1 Bath win and he could well bounce back now returned to 6f in a 17-runner contest that should be run at a decent gallop.
Since 2009, Clive Cox’s three-year-old handicaps, who finished sixth or worse last time out, are 43 from 262 (16.4%) when running in Class 2, 3 or 4 company for a profit of £164.95 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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NEWMARKET 4.50
PALM LILY (system – Ralph Beckett, second run in a nursery)
Ralph Beckett won the valuable 7f “Jersey Lily” fillies’ nursery in 2018 with the well-backed Chaleur and PALM LILY is taken to carry the same colours to victory. Since 2013, the yard’s runners having their second nursery outing are 17 from 62 (27.4%) for a profit of £40.08.
Beckett was unlucky not to win this race two years ago when Meu Amor fared best of those drawn low (first four drawn 17, 14, 16 and 4) and Palm Lily looks well berthed in stall 8 of 12. She was beaten by almost eight lengths when fourth in a 6.5f Doncaster nursery last time but that form is already working out well and today’s stiffer test of stamina will suit. GREY’S MONUMENT also qualifies on the same system in the 4.25 at Haydock today.
HAYDOCK 5.00
END RESULT (system – Jane Chapple-Hyam stable switchers)
In-form Jane Chapple-Hyam has a solid record at the first time of asking with horses she takes over from other yards, scoring with 19 of the 142 qualifiers since 2010 for a profit of £68.75. In handicaps only that improves to 18 from 108 for a profit of £92.75, improving again to nine from 38 (+£99.00) for those who were returning from a break of 150 days or longer. END RESULT has been off the track for a year since beating only a couple home at Newbury on his final start for David Elsworth and will appreciate any cut in the ground.
CURRAGH 5.05
YERMANTHERE (system – Fast Company, good to soft or softer going, Flat)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company appreciate plenty of dig in the ground and, since the spring of 2016, this angle has produced 108 winners from 852 bets (12.7%) for a profit of £101.03 to the usual £1 stake. YERMANTHERE did well to finish just three lengths behind the winner when a 22-1 eighth of 20 in a 6f handicap here last time as his patient style was at a big disadvantage. The step back up in trip will suit and his sole previous win came in the corresponding week last year.
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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