Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newmarket, Fontwell and Ascot for his four stats-based selections on Saturday, October 7th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 1.30
MADAME AMBASSADOR (system – Charlie Johnston, Newmarket handicaps, recent run)
The Johnston yard has a fine record in handicaps at Newmarket, no doubt because their horses are usually ridden from the front – tactics ideally suited to both the July Course and the Rowley Mile. Since 2012, backing Johnston handicappers in Newmarket handicappers, on their return from a break of between one and 14 days, would have found 65 winners from 342 bets (19%) for a lovely profit of £120.47 to a £1 level stake at SP. MADAME AMBASSADOR faces a tougher task after making all in a six-runner fillies’ handicap over course and distance last time but could out-run her odds.
FONTWELL 2.15
IMPERIAL B G (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, hurdles/chase in October, conditional jockey)
Nigel Twiston-Davies traditionally does well in the month of October and the best angle is to back his hurdlers/chasers who were ridden by a jockey claiming an allowance. In the past ten years he’s won with 33 of the 159 qualifiers (21%) for a profit of £39.18. IMPERIAL B G can strike for his in-form handler.
FONTWELL 2.50
MASTER DANCER (system – Richard Bandey chasers)
Trainer Richard Bandey has a great record with his chasers, scoring with 22 of the 122 runners (18%) for a profit of £134.62 to a £1 level stake at SP. MASTER DANCER, a winner over fences in France, goes well when fresh and first-time up could be when to catch him on his British chasing debut.
ASCOT 3.00
COMMANCHE FALLS (system – long traveller)
The Michael Dods-trained COMMANCHE FALLS has a great record when travelling more than 100 miles to the races from his Yorkshire base, landing seven of his 17 such starts for a profit of £53.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. Stall 1 is perhaps not ideal but he’s drifted to a fair price (around 7-2 at the time of writing) and arrives here in great form, having won three of his last four starts.
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