Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Ascot, Limerick, Wolverhampton and Catterick for his five stats-based selections on Saturday, October 21st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
ASCOT 2.25
ABOVE THE CURVE (system – American Pharoah/Galileo cross, 1m1f+)
I don’t have a strong opinion in the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes but there has a very interesting statistical pointer to the chance of Joseph O’Brien’s ABOVE THE CURVE. Progeny of her sire American Pharoah have a solid record when cross with a Galileo dam, landing nine of their 43 starts for a profit of £59.20 to the usual £1 stake. When competing over trips of 1m1f or further their record us seven from 16 for a profit of £80.30 (expected winners only 2.77). The four-year-old wasn’t beaten far when sixth in a Group 1 at Longchamp last time and the first-time cheekpieces could eke out some improvement.
LIMERICK 4.56
GLORIOUS SINGER (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
Jumps progeny of sire Fame And Glory show a tendency to improve with age and backing all the eight and nine-year-olds (the sire’s oldest crop) would have found 52 winners from 415 runners (12.5%) for a profit of £82.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. This angle helped to find 11-2 winner Ardera Ru at Thurles earlier this week and perhaps GLORIOUS SINGER can follow suit.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.25
MISS ANYA (system – Kodi Bear, Wolverhampton, 5f-7f)
Progeny of the sire Kodi Bear have a solid record at Wolverhampton, especially when competing over the shorter distances (5f-7f), with 15 of the 77 qualifiers scoring for a profit of £61.48 to a £1 level stake ay SP (expected winners = 9.13, A/E = 1.64). MISS ANYA fared best of those to come from off the pace when fourth of 13 at Beverley last time and will appreciate the return to the all-weather, having gone close at Chelmsford on her penultimate start.
CATTERICK 5.30
SUAGRPIEHONEYBUNCH (system – Fast Company, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company are profitable to follow blindly on the Flat when the mud is flying, landing 137 of their 1010 starts on officially soft or heavy going for a profit of £23.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s only a 2.3% profit on turnover but it would have been boosted to 48.1% (+£485.54) by taking the best early price (with BOG) the night before racing and SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH, a heavy ground 1m4f winner on her latest visit to Catterick, could provide a spot of value in this 1m6f contest.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
LEADING LION (system – Roaring Lion, Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire Roaring Lion have a solid record on Tapeta, including Wolverhampton form figures of 176731437211921 (5-15) for a profit of £15.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who started at single-figure odds had figures of 1714321121 (5-10) for a profit of £20.00. There are two qualifiers in this 9.4f novice stakes with strong preference for the Gosden-trained LEADING LION, who did well to finish a close second after making the running at Newcastle last time in a race set up for those ridden patiently.
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