Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been in great form this month with winners at up to 50-1 and has seven selections on Saturday, October 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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ASCOT 1.25
STRATUM (system – first-time blinkers, ridden by William Buick last time out)
My radio colleague James Millman, former jockey and assistant trainer to his Father Rod Millman, often waxed lyrical about the excellent feedback given by William Buick when he rode one of the yard’s horses. He said that Buick was often spot on when it came to recommending headgear.
I researched this angle and came up with the following system – simply back any horse wearing first-time blinkers who was ridden by William Buick last time and didn’t wear headgear. This has thrown up 58 winners from 320 bets (18.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £83.78 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Buick was on STRATUM when the Willie Mullins-trained veteran won the 2m5f Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot and was probably unsuited by the track when last of six to Coltrane at Doncaster last time. The blinkers (and tongue-tie) go on today and, though the 2m trip is on the sharp side, he could out-run his huge odds and is worth a small each-way bet.
STRATFORD 2.14
GODREVY POINT (system – Richard Bandey chasers)
Simply backing all Richard Bandey chase runners would have found 20 winners from 83 bets for a massive profit of £165.87. Those making their chase debut under Rules had form figures of 211241P11 (5-9) for a profit of £100.50. GODREVY POINT, winner of a maiden hurdle at Hereford in February, can make a winning start over the larger obstacles.
MARKET RASEN 2.27
HAAFAPEICE (system – Pam Sly, break returners)
This century, Pam Sly has a 31 from 264 record with horses returning from a break of at least 150 days and backing them all would have returned a profit of £141.00 to the usual £1 stake. HAAFAPEICE was a 15-2 winner on this angle on 31st October last year and is going to be a similar price this time around.
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ASCOT 2.40
EMILY UPJOHN (system – Gosden yard, first-time hood, turf)
Since the beginning of 2014, the Gosden yard has a 22 from 59 record with first-time hooded runners on turf for a huge profit of £116.17. The latest qualifier won at 12-1 at Leicester earlier this week and EMILY UPJOHN, so unlucky in the Oaks, is taken to bounce back from her poor effort in the King George here in July.
NEWTON ABBOT 3.30
DESIGN ICON (system – Kim Bailey, first-time cheekpieces, hurdles)
In the past 15 years, Kim Bailey is 16 from 81 with his hurdlers in first-time cheekpieces and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £43.00. As well as wearing the headgear for the first time, DESIGN ICON has also had wind surgery since winning at Market Rasen in May and can follow up.
NEWTON ABBOT 4.35
DATSALRIGHTGINO (system – Jamie Snowden, young/inexperienced handicap chasers)
Jamie Snowden does well with his young handicap chasers (aged six or younger) who are having their first or second outing in handicap chase, scoring with 21 of the 84 qualifiers for a profit of £36.16. DATSALRIGHTGINO, the 15-2 outsider of four at the time of writing, runs well when fresh and has the prominent running style that is so often effective here. He could be worth chancing on his chase debut after a six-month break.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
WHITE MOONLIGHT (system – Saeed Bin Suroor, first-time hood)
Since the beginning of 2016, Saeed Bin Suroor is 19 from 48 with his runners in a first-time hood and backing them all would have returned a profit of £28.80 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 11.47). WHITE MOONLIGHT bombed out in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when last seen but the subsequent break and addition of headgear could see him bounce back to form.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 15 October 2022
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers must sign up on mobile.
- Stake a minimum amount of £10 on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1.5 (1/2).
- A maximum of 3 x £10 free bets credited when a qualifying bet on selected events is settled.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 (3/10) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
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