Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found Chepstow winner OPERATION MANNA in on Friday and has three more picks for the racing action on Saturday, November 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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ASCOT 3.15
AMOOLA GOLD (system – seasonal pattern)
AMOOLA GOLD usually runs well at about this time of year, recording form figures over fences in October/November of 13112127 (4-8) for a profit of £27.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. He disappointed here last time but he only went down by a short head in this race last year when fitted with first-time cheekpieces and perhaps the first-time blinkers can revitalise him.
PUNCHESTOWN 3.23
JUNGLE PROSE (system – last-time out winners in 3m+ handicap hurdles, top speed)
Siding with last-time out winners in handicap hurdles over three miles or further has been a strong angle in recent years, especially those who clocked a Proform speed figure of 67 or more on their latest outing. In the past ten years, 116 of the 424 qualifiers were successful (27.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £108.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. This system produced a 12-1 winner at Catterick on Friday and perhaps JUNGLE PROSE, a comfortable winner at Down Royal earlier this month, can defy a 12lb hike in the weights.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
THE MENSTONE GEM (system – top four from the front on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface (1m2f+) last time
It remains very difficult to win from the front on the round course (distances of 1m2f or further) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and those that finish in the top four under forcing tactics often makes good bets next time. Since the beginning of 2016, 52 of the 242 qualifiers were successful (21.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £86.45 to a £1 level stake at SP. THE MOONSTONE GEM did really well to hold on for a nose victory after making the running in a 1m2f handicap at Newcastle last time and that form has been boosted by the runner-up. His full record on Tapeta reads 1221 (2-4), with all four runs at Newcastle, and there could be more to come now switched to Wolverhampton, a track more amenable to his running style.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 16 November 2022
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Related
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