Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew goes to war with six stats-based picks at Ascot, Haydock, Nottingham and Warwick on Saturday, May 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
ASCOT 1.30
YOUTHFUL KING (system – Fountain Of Youth, turf, very recent run)
Progeny of the sire Fountain Of Youth have a good record on turf when returned to the track quickly (within 15 days), landing 33 of their 207 starts (16% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £302.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. YOUTHFUL KING, an eyecatcher on the all-weather on a couple of occasions earlier this year, didn’t enjoy the track at Newmarket last week and looks interesting now dropping in class.
HAYDOCK 2.10
CERULEAN BAY (system New Bay, second run since gelded)
New Bay progeny have a nine from 35 record on their second start following a gelding operation and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £21.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Primo Lara recorded a 9-2 win at Chelmsford on this angle on Thursday night and the David O’Meara-trained CERULEAN BAY, fourth at Beverley on last month’s comeback and first start since gelded, can go three places better.
NOTTINGHAM 2.20
FINE GOLD (system – Tom Clover, gelded newcomers)
Tom Clover’s is six from 38 with gelded newcomers for a profit of £68.00 to the usual £1 stake and plenty of the beaten horses ran well at big prices (latest qualifier Surrey Shadow was second at 20-1 at Doncaster last month). FINE GOLD, who also qualifies as a bet for me on a Starspangledbanner newcomers system, looks worth a punt on his racecourse debut.
HAYDOCK 2.45
LIANGEL HOPE (system – Christopher Mason, 5yo geldings)
Trainer Chris Mason excels with slow-maturing types and had we backed all his five-year-old geldings on the Flat we’d have won 11 of our 33 bets for a profit of £13.38. LIANGEL HOPE was a fast-ground Brighton winner at about this time last year, has won here at Haydock and returned to form with a 9-1 second on his latest start.
ASCOT 3.10
ROKUNI (system – Eve Johnson Houghton, 2yo newcomers, colts only)
Eve Johnson Houghton has an 11 from 68 record with juvenile colts on their debuts for a profit of £11.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 6.36, A/E = 1.73). Nineteen of the beaten horses finished second or third at ROKUNI looks set to go well on his debut, despite a tricky draw on the outside of the field.
WARWICK 5.35
THE LATE LEGEND (system – Midnight Legend chasers, February to June)
Progeny of Midnight Legend have a good record over fences in spring/summer and backing them blind from February until June would have found 258 winners from 1464 bets (17.6%) for a profit of £189.23. THE LATE LEGEND has been very disappointing of late but this course and distance winner needs a track with easy fences and a smallish field and gets his conditions tonight. Throw in Tom Weston’s good form and he looks worth a speculative punt at around the 25-1 mark or even bigger.
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