Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been in good form this week and he has six stats-based picks on Saturday, January 14th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WETHERBY 12.47
MARTY TIME (system – Sue Smith, January)
Since 2014, Sue Smith has a 63 from 240 record with her runners in January (26.25% strike-rate) and had we backed all of them we’d have made a huge profit of £180.57 to a £1 level stake at SP. So far this year, she’s three from six (+£39.50) and MARTY TIME might be able to out-run his huge odds (forecast at 66-1) in this novices’ hurdle.
KEMPTON 2.40
PENTLAND HILLS (system – Nicky Henderson, Lanzarote Hurdle, ran over fences last time out)
The Nicky Henderson-trained PENTLAND HILLS, who fell in a handicap chase at Ffos Las on his latest outing, is a big price but there’s a fascinating stat associated with his yard’s Lanzarote runners who were reverting from fences. Henderson’s six such runners this century have returned form figures of 341113 (3-6), with the wins at 7-1, 5-1 and 5-1 and the places at 33-1, 14-1 and 9-1. Pentland Hills has his stamina to prove but is worth chancing to small each-way stakes.
CATTERICK 3.07
EAST STREET (system – Sue Smith, January)
EAST STREET qualifies as a bet for me on the same angle as Marty Time (see 12.47 Wetherby) and looks to have been found an ideal opportunity. He was relatively strong in the market for his first two runs this season but his yard was quiet and he would have needed the run when beaten by 33 lengths into a 7-2 third of four at Doncaster on his comeback. He also ran as though the race would bring him on third at Market Rasen on Boxing Day and first-time cheekpieces/step up to three miles could bring about improvement.
CHELMSFORD 5.30
CLOSENESS (system – Kublers, stable switchers)
Since the beginning of 2010, the Kubler yard is five from 29 at the first time of asking with horses they take over from other handlers for a profit of £36.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The last two qualifiers both won (15-2 and 13-2) and the step up in trip – another key angle with this yard – could bring about improvement from CLOSENESS. He’s poorly drawn in stall 12 but there’s likely to be compensation in the price (forecast at 25-1).
CHELMSFORD 6.00
HIGH COURT JUDGE (system – Henry Spiller, stable switchers, all-weather)
Since the beginning of 2017, Henry Spiller has a seven from 32 all-weather record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £24.50 to a £1 level stake at SP and HIGH COURT JUDGE could be worth chancing on his handicap debut and first start since leaving Johnny Murtagh in Ireland.
CHELMSFORD 8.00
SPECIAL FORCES (system – James Tate debut winners, second-time out)
James Tate debut winners often follow up, with 15 of the 40 qualifiers proving successful at the second time of asking (37.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 9.51). SPECIAL FORCES was very well backed when scoring on his debut at Wolverhampton last summer and the runner-up has scored twice since to give the form some substance.
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