Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found well-backed Kelso winner DEDICATED HERO on Friday and has five stats-based selections on Saturday, February 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
WINCANTON 1.30
ONETHREEFIVEOUT (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, finished fourth or worse last time out)
Paul Nicholls has a good record when using first-time cheekpieces and the value lies in siding with those who finished fourth or worse on their latest outing. Since 2010, he’s won with 33 of the 140 qualifiers (23.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £42.47 to a £1 level stake at SP. ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT, reportedly never travelling when beating only one home at Sandown a fortnight ago, can prove that form was all wrong.
WINCANTON 2.05
GUARD YOUR DREAMS (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
Jumps progeny of Fame And Glory tend to improve with time and backing those aged eight, nine or ten (the sire’s oldest crop) shows a profit of £119.34 thanks to 73 winners from 545 bets (13.4% strike-rate). GUARD YOUR DREAMS finished last of five at Cheltenham on his most recent outing but that was his first run for 660 days and he should improve for it.
NEWCASTLE 5.00
ALPINE OASIS (system – Karl Burke, second-time out 3yos, all-weather)
Since the beginning of 2010, Karl Burke has a 16 from 69 record (23.2%) with second-time out three-year-olds on the all-weather and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £96.33 to a £1 level stake. ALPINE OASIS, a promising 18-1 fifth of nine at Wolverhampton earlier this month, needs to improve to beat odds-on favourite Alhaatan but is worth chancing at odds of around 7-1.
NEWCASTLE 7.00
JEMS BOND (system – seasonal pattern)
JEMS BOND tends to come good at this time of year, recording form figures from mid-February until the end of March of 11321831 (4-8), with the unplaced effort excusable as he failed to stay 1m at Southwell (all those wins came over 6f-7f at Newcastle). He finished a creditable 16-1 sixth here on his latest start and is now 4lb below his last winning mark.
NEWCASTLE 7.30
GLOBAL HUMOR (system – recent run)
GLOBAL HUMOR has landed five of his 17 starts when returned to the track between one and nine days since his latest outing and backing him under these conditions would have returned a profit of £10.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. When running between one and five days since his latest effort his record stands at 116161 (4-6). He won over 6f here just four days ago and can follow up.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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