Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew head to Aintree, Chepstow and Wolverhampton for six stats-based selections on Saturday, December 3rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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CHEPSTOW 11.53
PARICOLOR (system – recent run)
PARICOLOR could only finish a seven-and-a-half-length third of six when reappearing in a three-mile handicap hurdle at Ffos Las last month, but this was his first run since early May and was no doubt needed. David Pipe’s six-year-old is now 0-9 for his current yard when returning from a break of more than 30 days, compared to nine from 19 when running within a month of his latest outing. He can bounce back today
AINTREE 12.55
PADDY’S FANCY (system – New Bay, recent run)
Progeny of the sire New Bay tend to improve for a run and simply backing those who had raced within the past four weeks would have found 86 winners from 403 bets (21.3%), which exceeds the expected figure of 67.27 winners. We’d have made a tiny loss by backing them blind but those who finished first or second on their latest outing were 48 from 128 (37.5%) for a profit of £65.86. PADDY’S FANCY scraped home at Leicester after a 158-day break on her hurdles debut and looks worth a small interest at around the 14-1 mark despite facing much softer conditions today.
CHEPSTOW 1.37
SOUTHFIELD HARVEST (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, 4th or worse last time out)
Paul Nicholls has a solid record when using first-time cheekpieces, especially on horses who finished unplaced on their latest outing. Backing all those who finished fourth or worse last time would have found 30 winners from 127 runners (23.6%) since 2010 for a profit of £36.97 to a £1 level stake at SP. The talented but quirky SOUTHFIELD HARVEST jumped poorly when pulled up at Fontwell last time but is worth chancing to small stakes in the hope that the headgear revitalises him.
AINTREE 2.05
PERCUSSION (system – Laura Morgan, chasers)
Laura Morgan has a fantastic record with her chasers, scoring with 67 of the 314 qualifiers (21.3%) for a profit of £122.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. PERCUSSION ran a fine race from out of the handicap proper when a 40-1 third of 14 over the National fences in the 2m5f Grand Sefton Handicap Chase here last month and the step up in trip will suit.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.20
CLOCH NUA (system – Paul Mulrennan, Wolverhampton)
Paul Mulrennan doesn’t often ride at Wolverhampton nowadays, but it usually pays to follow him when he does. Since the beginning of 2019, he’s scored on 18 of his 118 rides (15.3%) for a profit of £76.58 to a £1 level stake at SP. In handicaps only, his strike-rate improves to 18.5% (17 from 92) for a profit of £98.83. CLOCH NUA caught the eye at Lingfield last time where he finished second by a neck under patient tactics in a slowly-run race. The return to Tapeta will suit and, with luck, Motawaafeq will ensure a strong gallop and set it up for him.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.20
KING OF THE SOUTH (system – surface preference)
KING OF THE SOUTH is a Tapeta expert and his record here at Wolverhampton, at Newcastle or at Southwell (since they replaced the Fibresand with Tapeta last December) stands at 11221311141 (7-11) for a profit of £14.25. He still looks on the upgrade and is likely to prove hard to beat.
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