Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew returned from his holiday with a lovely 5-1 winner at the Curragh on Sunday and has four picks on Monday, September 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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BRIGHTON 1.50
ELLIE PIPER (system – Robyn Brisland, very recent run)
Robyn Brisland has a solid record when bringing back one of his runners to the track seven days or sooner since its last race, scoring with 24 of the 100 qualifiers for a profit of £42.80. Those who ran well in defeat last time (defined as finishing second, third, fourth or fifth) were 15 from 53 for a profit of £60.73. ELLIE PIPER, runner-up at Chepstow four days ago, won at Ffos Las on her only other turf handicap start on good/softer going and could have more to offer.
WORCESTER 2.40
SOLDAT FORTE (system – Charlie Longsdon, September)
Simply backing any Charlie Longsdon-trained runner in the month of September would have found 61 winners from 234 bets (26.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £79.35 (expected winners = 42). He has four runners at Worcester today and SOLDAT FORTE, who ran green when a close-up fourth in a Stratford bumper on last month’s debut under Rules, should know more this time.
KEMPTON 5.30
ALAINN TU (system – Kempton big-field handicaps, middle draw)
The inside route has not been the best one to take at Kempton this year and the usual bias to low-drawn runners has gone missing. It can still be difficult to win from a very high draw but siding with those drawn in the middle has been very profitable of late – stalls 6, 7 and 8 have a combined record of 30 from 210 in handicaps of 10+ runners in 2022 for a profit of £78.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran between one and 21 days ago were 18 from 101 for a profit of £118.83. ALAINN TU ran better than her patiently-ridden 11-1 sixth of eight suggested on her handicap debut at Chepstow last time as the early pace held up and she could never get involved from her wide draw. Another of the hold-up horses from that race has won since to give the form a boost. She’s around 40-1 today and could be worth chancing to very small stakes.
KEMPTON 8.00
PROMOTING (system – Showcasing, Polytrack, first run since gelded)
Progeny of the sire Showcasing do well on Polytrack and PROMOTING’s best effort came when second by a neck over 1m here last December. He has failed to improve since handicapping over a longer trip, but gelding could help. Showcasing progeny are six from 34 when running on Polytrack on their first start since being gelded for a profit of £40.33. He’s around 20-1 and is another worthy of a token interest on a tricky punting card.
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Related
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