Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found Chelmsford winner BE LUCKY MY SON (4-1 from 15-2) on Thursday, and has four picks on Friday, September 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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SALISBURY 1.25
ASCOT 2.00
POCKET THE PROFIT (system – Mayson, 5f-7f handicaps, fresh)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have a solid record in handicap company over 5f-7f, landing 166 of their 1296 starts (12.7% strike-rate). We’d have made a 9% loss by backing them blind at SP but that becomes +11.8% at Betfair SP (after 2% comm) and +12.9% at the best evening odds the night before racing.
Those who were running fresh (after a break of at least six weeks) were 39 from 267 (14.2%) for a profit of £119.41 to a £1 level stake at SP. Both Stone Solider and POCKET THE PRFOIT qualify in this amateur riders’ handicap, with preference for the last-named who is more likely to be ridden patiently – tactics that are ideal for Ascot’s straight course, especially if the forecast headwind materialises.
FONTWELL 3.25
HILL STATION (system – Gary Moore 3yo hurdlers)
Since 2015, Gary Moore has a 28 from 104 record with his three-year-old hurdlers for a profit of £46.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running at Fontwell only were 14 from 28 for a profit of £34.89. HILL STATION was tailed off at Newton Abbot in July but might have needed that after falling at the same venue when looking set to score on his hurdles debut the previous month and is worth another chance.
FONTWELL 5.10
BRAVEHEART (system – Jamie Snowden, young handicap chasers)
Jamie Snowden does well in Class 3 or lower handicap chasers with young horses (aged four to six), scoring with 35 of the 153 qualifiers for a profit of £44.23 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who were making their chase debut or were having only their second chase outing did even better and BRAVEHEART can make a winning start over the larger obstacles. His best RPR (Racing Post Rating) came in a bumper on his reappearance last term and first time out might be when to catch him.
NEWCASTLE 5.15
POET’S VISION (system – David Barron, gelded since last run)
Since the start of 2009, David Barron is 17 from 75 with his newly gelded runners for a profit of £35.42 to the usual £1 stake. POET’S VISION has uninspiring form figures of 0070 (0-4) but will appreciate the cut back to 6f after his last of 11 in a 7.5f Beverley nursery, his first run in handicap company, and he showed promise on his penultimate start when a four-length seventh of 15 at Thirsk.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 30 September 2022
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers must sign up on mobile.
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- A maximum of 3 x £10 free bets credited when a qualifying bet on selected events is settled.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 (3/10) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
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- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
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