Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew continued his scintillating form with 13-2 Ayr winner BOY DOUGLAS on Thursday and has three more stats-based selections on Friday, October 7th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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CHEPSTOW 1.35
CLOTH CAP (system – 10yos in veterans’ handicap chases, sixth or worse last time out)
I tipped Some Chaos when he won this race 12 months ago but he’s an 11-year-old now and regular readers will know that I favour ten-year-olds, the youngest age group eligible to take part, in veterans’ handicap chases.
Unfortunately, five of the seven runners fall into this category but I’m happy to oppose The Mighty Don who is very difficult to win with (just 1-15 over fences). Broken Quest could also be vulnerable, as his nine wins have all come on right-handed tracks.
The obvious one to take advantage is 2020 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winner CLOTH CAP. He failed to shine last season but faced several stiff tasks – mostly on unsuitably slow ground – including when pulled up in the Grand National last time.
Backing all ten-year-olds in veterans’ handicap chases doesn’t produce a profit but those who ran sixth or worse last time out are 67 from 440 (15.2%) for a profit of £112.70.
The logic being that these horses were probably conceding weight to younger rivals, often at one of the spring festivals, and were now taking on much easier company.
YORK 5.00
FIELD OF VIEW (system – Starspangledbanner 2yos, debut, turf)
Progeny of the sire Starspangledbanner have a good record when making their juvenile debut on turf, with 24 of the 150 qualifiers winning for a profit of £62.36. In-form John Quinn’s latest of four qualifiers in this system – Breege – won at odds of 17-2 back in May and perhaps FIELD OF VIEW can follow suit.
YORK 5.35
GUESS (system – Ralph Beckett 3yos, second run since gelded, handicaps)
Ralph Beckett has a fine record with three-year-old handicappers on their second start after being gelded, scoring with 20 of the 85 qualifiers for a profit of £65.23.
GUESS was an eyecatcher in a 7f handicap at Newmarket last month on his first start for 139 days, staying down the middle from his low draw in a race run to suit prominent types who took the stands’ side route.
To finish only two lengths behind the winner – Pam Sly’s Astral Beau – was a cracking effort in the circumstances and he can reverse the form with his old rival here.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 7 October 2022
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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Related
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