Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Friday (October 21st) and Andrew has found five picks across four races at Newbury, Cheltenham and Doncaster. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NEWBURY 12.50
FINEST LEADER (system – Churchill, second time out 2yos, top four on debut)
Progeny of the sire Churchill have a poor record on their juvenile debuts but those that run with promise (finishing in the top four) have a second time out record of eight from 26 (31%) for a profit of £9.05. FINEST LEADER was very green when a modest fourth at Salisbury on last month’s debut and is worth a small interest at around the 16-1 mark.
CHELTENHAM 1.35
CASTEL GANDALFO & ELHAM VALLEY (system – Fergal O’Brien, October, conditional/amateur races)
Fergal O’Brien tends to hit the ground running when the peak jumps season commences and his yard does exceptionally well at this time of year in races confined to conditional and/or amateur riders. Since 2016, his October record in these races stands at nine winners from 30 runners for a profit of £25.54. He’s won this conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle twice in the past three years and I’ve bet both his runners each-way – ELHAM VALLEY and CASTEL GANDALFO.
DONCASTER 2.55
HOSANNA POWER (system – Frankel/Dubawi cross)
Frankel is a potent sire, especially when crossed with a Dubawi mare. Forty-five of the 150 qualifiers (30%) have scored for a profit of £60.71. Sir Michael Stoute’s juvenile newcomer HOSANNA POWER could be worth a speculative interest.
NEWBURY 4.20
PUNCHBOWL FLYER (system – distance and going preference)
PUNCHBOWL FLYER simply needs 6f on good to soft or softer going (preferably soft or heavy). His record under these conditions reads 1411118196006 (6-13) for a profit of £32.25 to the usual £1 stake. He did too much too soon into the headwind when sixth at Haydock last time where the five who beat him all came from midfield or further back. There’s a strong wind forecast at Newbury today but it’s more of a crosswind than headwind and he’s worth a small interest with ground conditions to suit.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 19 October 2022
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Related
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