Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew was among the winners on Thursday and heads into Derby weekend with four stats-based selections on Friday, May 31st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHEPSTOW 1.20
AJADEL (system – New Bay 3yos, recent run, top three finish last time out)
Three-year-old progeny of New Bay have a fine record after a recent outing (42 days or less) and on the back of a top-three finish, landing 53 of their 179 starts (29.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £69.72 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 40.04, A/E = 1.32). Early market mover AJADEL, who fared bets of the closers when a one-length 16-1 third at Brighton earlier this month, can be backed to go two places better.
CHEPSTOW 3.00
SARAH’S VERSE (system – time of year)
Spring horse SARAH’S VERSE did this column a good turn when scoring at Bath recently, taking her record in April/May to seven wins from 17 starts for a profit of £24.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Her record outside of this two-month band stands at just one win from 40 starts. Connie’s Rose, who teed the race up for her nicely at Bath last time, is again in opposition and the Ron Harris-trained seven-year-old is well-in under her 4lb penalty.
EPSOM 5.10
NATIVE AMERICAN (system – Sioux Nation, small fields)
Progeny of Sioux Nation do especially well in smallish fields, landing 90 of their 499 starts (18%) in fields of ten or fewer runners for a profit of £80.31 (in larger line-ups they’re just 26 from 430, 6.1%, for a loss of £193.98. NATIVE AMERICAN’s patient running style was no help when down the field over the Cambridgeshire trip at Newmarket last time and will be happier back at 7f this afternoon.
CATTERICK 7.25
SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH (system – Fast Company, soft or heavy going, Flat only)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company love the mud and by simply backing all the qualifiers on officially soft or heavy going (Flat only) we’d have landed 147 of our 1079 bets (13.6%) for a profit of £10.43 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s only a tiny return on investment (+0.97%) but those who finished in the top four last time out were 84 from 393 (21.4%) for a profit of £138.98 and SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH, third on unsuitably fast ground at Ripon last time, will appreciate the return ti the scene of her latest victory.
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