Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newmarket, York, Leopardstown and Hamilton for his four stats-based picks on Friday, May 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 4.00
THEATRE HONOURS (system – Charlie Appleby, gelded 3yo newcomers)
Since the beginning of 2017, Charlie Appleby has a 19 from 62 record with his gelded three-year-old newcomers (30.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £21.54 to a £1 level stake at SP. On turf only, the strike-rate improves to 32.1% (nine from 28) for a profit of £25.27. THEATRE HONOURS, a son of Kingman, could be up to making a winning debut.
YORK 4.10
NEW BUSINESS (system – Andrew Balding, second-time out 3yos, top three finish on debut)
Since the spring of 2016, Andrew Balding is 28 from 72 (38.9% strike-rate) with his second-time out three-year-olds who finished in the top three on their debut and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £15.67 to the usual £1 stake. NEW BUSINESS, third to Passenger (very unlucky in the Dante Stakes yesterday) in the Wood Ditton, can reverse the form with Kathab, runner-up in that 1m Newmarket contest.
LEOPARDSTOWN 4.40
MARINER (system – Kingman colts, 7f+, 2yo debut, turf)
Kingman colts make good bets on their juvenile debuts, provided they are running over 7f or further on turf. Backing the qualifiers blind would have found 19 winners from 77 bets (24.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £69.45 to a £1 level stake at SP. Johnny Murtagh’s MARINER, a 200,000 euros buy, is taken to make a winning debut for his shrewd owners.
HAMILTON 8.26
EARN YOUR STRIPES (system – 6f draw bias, Hamilton)
Low draws have enjoyed a huge edge in 6f races at Hamilton of late, with stalls 1, 2 or 3 landing 24 of the 105 such races since the start of last season for a huge profit of £248.74 to a £1 level stake at SP. EARN YOUR STRIPES looks well drawn in stall 3 of 12 in this 0-55 handicap and his three runs here have produced a 250-1 novice third (6f), 13-2 selling handicap win (13-2) and a 9-2 neck second in a 5f handicap. I’ll probably save on the stall 1 and stall 2 runners – BANNER ROAD and STRONSAY – and combine the trio in a combination forecast.
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