Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
It’s day four of the Cheltenham festival (Friday, March 15th) and Andrew has five stats-based picks at Cheltenham and Chelmsford. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHELTENHAM 2.50
JOHNNYWHO (system – Albert Bartlett, finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in prep race, 29+ days absence)
Last-time out winners don’t have the greatest record in the Albert Bartlett and the best punting angle is to side with horses who ran second, third or fourth in their prep race who had been rasted for more than four weeks. This system has produced eight of the last 16 winners (from 65 bets) for a profit of £141.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. If we throw in the proviso that the qualifiers must also have prepped in a Graded race, the score is eight from 39 for a profit of £167.00. JOHNNYWHO, a staying on fourth in Grade 2 company over the extended 2m4f trip here on Trials Day, will relish the step up to 3m and looks the pick of this year’s four qualifiers.
FFOS LAS 3.55
DOUBLE CLICK (system – Sean Bowen, Ffos Las chases)
Sean Bowen has a fine record when riding over fences at Ffos Las, scoring on 49 of his 144 mounts (27.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £56.74 to the usual £1 stake (expected winners = 26.08, A/E = 1.50). DOUBLE CLICK, the first of two qualifiers today (the other is BREIZH ALKO in the 5.10), can get the ball rolling.
NEWCASTLE 6.10
LETHAL NYMPH (system – stall 1, Newcastle 5f-7f handicaps)
In general, it helps to be drawn high and race near the stands’ rail on the straight course and Newcastle but that often leads to low-drawn runners going off at value prices. Since May 1st last year, backing all stall 1 runners in handicaps over 5f-7f would have found 22 winners from 192 bets (11.5%) for a profit of £86.21 to a £1 level stake at SP. LETHAL NYMPH, who also qualifies as a bet for me on a breeding angle, could be worth chancing.
NEWCASTLE 7.40
MR IRRELEVANT (system – Grant Tuer, handicap debut, Flat, colts/geldings)
Grant Tuer’s male representatives do well on their handicap debuts on the Flat (all-weather and turf), with nine of the 43 qualifiers winning for a profit of £16.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. The three-year-olds were eight from 22 for a profit of £30.13 and MR IRRELEVANT, who caught the eye when fifth on the slowest part of the track at Catterick on his final start last year, might be able to overcome the 233-day break on his all-weather debut.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00
MERRY MINISTER (system – low-drawn Lingfield AW winners)
It’s not easy to win from a low draw (stall 1 or 2) on the Polytrack at Lingfield but horses that do so often make good bets next time out if kept to the all-weather. Since the beginning of 2018 120 of the 442 qualifiers won (27.2%) for a profit of £61.88 (expected winners = 99.27, A/E = 1.21). MERRY MINISTER, an eyecatcher against the pace bias over 2m at Lingfield on his penultimate start, overcame stall 2 when upped to 2m at the same venue next time and can follow up.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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